This roadmap just exposed shocking $26,000-$75,000 price targets for gold.
$26,000-$75,000 Gold
July 6 (King World News) – Otavio Costa: America has given me and my family opportunities we could only have dreamed of, and some of the most meaningful moments of my life have happened here.
I’m deeply grateful for that.
I hope my comments on the economy are never taken as a criticism of this country. Quite the opposite.
I believe it’s important to understand where we are today so we can have thoughtful conversations about the future.
One of the defining macro themes of the next decade, in my view, will be whether America can restore the fiscal and monetary discipline that made it the world’s financial leader.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: The Price Of Gold Would Need To Surge To $26,000 To Equal 1980 High, A Jaw-Dropping $75,000 To Equal The 1940 High As A Percent Of US Government Debt
We Can’t Rest Easily With Inflation
Peter Boockvar: What I believe to be a most interesting price right now is that of the 10 year Treasury yield at around 4.50% ish. This, even as oil prices have come right back down to about where they stood before the Middle East conflict began, as we know (though we also know that the average gallon of gasoline is currently 27% above the level in late February). On the Friday before the bombing started, the 10 yr yield was 3.94%. Its average over the past year is 4.24%. This, even as inflation expectations as implied in the TIPS market have come in sharply. The 2 yr inflation breakeven at 1.95%, is at the lowest since October 2024. The 5 yr rate at 2.25% is back to where it was last December.
Yes, the market has pivoted by pricing in a rate hike this year, with a slight chance of a second one but is Warsh and Co really going to hike with such a dramatic drop in market based inflation expectations? I really don’t believe so and even Kevin Warsh himself said last week at the central bank gathering in Sintra that “Expectations of future inflation (over the last four weeks) have come down. Inflation risks have come down.”
Are long rates rising because economic growth is robust? As growth is still around 2% with much of the contribution from data center construction, it remains quite mixed. Is it because the labor market is strong? As seen Friday, it’s just ok with pockets of strength (healthcare and social assistance still, along with construction) and holes of weakness.
This said, maybe it’s just as simple as this? On February 27th, right before the war started, the December fed funds futures were pricing in a 100% chance of two cuts this year and a 36% chance of a 3rd vs the current possibility of a hike by year end.
Or maybe this too? While the Treasury market doesn’t ‘speak’ to us directly and we can only guess and imply, I’m going to argue again that debts and deficits matter for developed bond markets around the world and just maybe excessive supply is keeping long rates elevated.
Either way, we can’t rest easily with inflation. The cost of transportation in particular keeps jumping. The World Container Index for the Shanghai to NY route rose another 10.5% last week and stands at the most expensive since September 2024 at $7,902.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: More “Transitory” Inflation Is On The Way As Shanghai To New York Container Shipping Prices Hit $7,902
The journeys to LA and Europe have similar situations. I’m hearing that some of this demand are suppliers and buyers trying to get ahead of another possible round of selective tariffs.
The Journal of Commerce last week talking about the trucking market said this, “US truck shippers hoping for near term stabilization in truckload or less-than-truckload (LTL) capacity and double digit rate hikes are likely to be disappointed as structural changes to the truckload market send ripples throughout supply chains.”
In the piece they quote a senior analyst at ACT Research who spoke at a conference last week and that said “rates are accelerating still, which is incredible…It’s an extremely tight market. Maybe an acutely tight market would be a better way to describe it.”
Will A US Stock Market Selloff Weaken The Dollar?
With respect to the US dollar and its direction from here, I made the point early last year that the Mag 7 stocks became essentially a reserve asset for foreign investors and some central banks that own stocks like in Switzerland and Norway. If the Mag 7 continues to underperform, which I expect as they get rerated as cash flow draining, lower return businesses, I’m curious to see whether that eventually weighs on foreign holdings of these stocks and ultimately the US dollar. That along with the big picture global trend of diversifying capital and trade flows which I expect to continue.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Reserve Asset? MAG’s ETF (WHITE) vs US Dollar Index (ORANGE)
Gold & Silver
To listen to James Turk discuss what he expects next for gold, silver, the mining stocks and more CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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