Here is a special update on the key to gold and silver markets as we head into Friday.
June 25 (King World News) – This is a portion of a special report that was just released from the always brilliant Jesse Colombo: It’s time for a mid-week precious metals and miners update. The complex continues to face pressure under the new Fed regime led by Kevin Warsh, which is being viewed as hawkish. That shift has strengthened the U.S. dollar and weighed on commodities across the board. For now, it is important to keep a close eye on key support zones to gauge where this five-month correction is likely to stabilize and rebound from.
Let’s start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. After breaking below the $4,300 to $4,600 support zone earlier this month and failing to reclaim it following last week’s Fed meeting, gold has now moved into the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone that formed at the lows in October and November 2025.
Ideally, I would like to see the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone hold, but if it doesn’t, the next zone at $3,400 to $3,600, which formed at last summer’s highs, would come into play. For now, though, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
On Wednesday, silver broke below the $60 to $70 support zone that had formed over the past seven months, underscoring the need for added caution in the short term for those trading.
The next support zone now comes into play at $45 to $55, which was established by the highs and lows in October and November 2025, and ideally I would like to see silver find firmer footing here and stage a recovery from this zone.
Next, let’s look at the U.S. Dollar Index, which is an important influence on precious metals and commodities, trading inversely with them. On Sunday, I showed how the U.S. Dollar Index had been forming a broadening pattern over the past year, and I was waiting to see if it would break out from it or pull back.
Driven by the hawkish sentiment that emerged from last week’s Fed meeting, the U.S. Dollar Index broke out of its broadening pattern, increasing the odds of further near-term strength in the dollar and creating a headwind for precious metals and commodities.
That said, Thursday’s U.S. PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is likely to be a major catalyst that could move markets and determine whether this dollar breakout has staying power or proves to be a false move.
Forecasters expect the index to show inflation rising 4.1% over the 12 months ending in May, and if inflation comes in softer than feared, it would be bearish for the dollar and bullish for precious metals, and vice versa.
To wrap up, markets are being roiled by the prospect of a new, hawkish Fed chair who is expected to take a tough stance on inflation and not hesitate to raise rates to combat it—an outcome that runs counter to what Donald Trump had intended when he waged a campaign against former Fed chair Jerome Powell and installed Kevin Warsh.
The situation is extremely bizarre, chaotic, and, in my view, pointless. At the same time, I remain skeptical that Kevin Warsh will be as hawkish as markets currently fear and see this reaction as an overreaction. Make no mistake: the Fed is in the dollar debasement business, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Right now, I continue to monitor the dollar to see whether this breakout has staying power, and Thursday’s PCE inflation report will be critical in determining whether it gains further traction or is quickly reversed.
In addition, I continue to keep a close eye on the key support zones across each precious metal and mining stock ETF I highlighted, looking for where they ultimately find firm footing and begin to stabilize. As always, I’ll keep you posted on what I’m seeing.
My conviction that precious metals are the best investment for this environment remains completely intact, even as they are being buffeted by major policy shifts ranging from the Iran war to changes at the Fed.
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