This is an important update: The US has just suffered a major strategic loss.
June 24 (King World News) – Gregory Mannarino, writing for the Trends Journal: This is one of the most important breakdowns I have written in a long time.
Please take your time reading through this.
With this MOU, which is not a deal, it’s a Memorandum Of Understanding, the United States has suffered a major strategic loss.
Here is a breakdown of what’s in the MOU.
For Iran…. the MOU gives Iran.
1. Immediate termination of military operations against it.
2. 60 days before the hardest final terms must be settled.
3. Iran keeps the current status quo of its nuclear program pending the final deal.
4. No immediate removal of enriched/enrichment material. No immediate destruction. Disposition is left to a mutually agreed future mechanism.
5. No final enrichment cap. Enrichment and nuclear needs are pushed into final-deal talks.
6. No new US sanctions during the pending period. No additional US regional force deployments.
7. US begins removing the blockade immediately and fully ends it within 30 days.
8. Iran keeps leverage over future Strait administration talks with Oman and Gulf states.
9. US Treasury waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, banking, insurance, transportation, and associated services.
10. Frozen or restricted Iranian funds become fully available for use under procedures to be agreed. Ultimate beneficiaries can be designated by Iran’s central bank.
11. At least $300B reconstruction/economic-development plan, which more than half is already committed…
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Also in the MOU… this is what America got.
1. A ceasefire.
2. A 60-day negotiation process. Including A broad Iranian “reaffirmation” that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons. A “promise” to negotiate the disposition of stockpiled enriched material later. Future talks on enrichment and nuclear matters.
3. Iran gives safe-passage “best efforts” language.
4. Commercial vessel passage, with no charge, for 60 days only, based on Iran’s “best efforts.”
The MOU HEAVILY favors Iran, who has come out as the clear winner.
And now, because the war did not produce a clean strategic victory for our country, the economy is going to absorb the fallout.
Oil. Inflation. Food. The dollar. The bond market. The consumer. Shipping. Insurance. Energy.
All of that listed above is tied to this MOU, which is already being stress-tested by Iran who claims to have closed the Strait again, after what they are calling ceasefire violations. (The US is disputing this).
Let’s talk about the economic fallout.
MAJOR KEY POINTS
1. THE OIL SHOCK IS NOT RESOLVED. Lions, the MOU does not secure the Strait. In fact, it allows Iran to keep leverage over the strait. That means oil cannot fully price in “peace.” It can only price in potential temporary relief. And as long as the Strait remains contested, the market will price in uncertainty. (And if there is ONE THING that the market hates, it’s uncertainty)… so expect volatility.
2. INFLATION PRESSURE STAYS ALIVE. As you are already very aware, energy feeds the entire economy. Diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, shipping, trucking, food distribution, manufacturing, plastics, fertilizers, and consumer goods all tie back to energy costs. So, if oil remains elevated or volatile, inflation pressure stays alive. This is not just about gas prices. This is about the cost of everything that moves.
3. THE DOLLAR TAKES ANOTHER CREDIBILITY HIT. The US entered this war with major stated objectives, but this MOU does not achieve them. Iran keeps nuclear status quo, Iran gets sanctions relief, Iran gets $300 billion for economic rebuilding, and their “frozen assets” get unfrozen. Iran also gains time, and Iran gets to keeps leverage. That weakens CON-fidence in US power, AND US policy credibility. Lions… when confidence weakens, nations look for alternatives to dollar dependence.
4. THE TREASURY MARKET CAN COME UNDER MORE PRESSURE. War, higher oil, inflation pressure, massive deficits, and weakening confidence all put pressure on the bond market. If investors demand higher yields to hold US debt, interest costs rise. If interest costs rise, deficits get worse. If deficits get worse, even more debt must be issued. That is the pressure loop.
5. THE CONSUMER GETS HIT AGAIN. Gasoline, food prices, utility bills, insurance premiums, car payments, and rent. If energy and shipping costs rise, the consumer gets hit from every direction. The middle class is already under EXTREME pressure, and this MOU does not relieve that pressure. IN FACT…………… it risks adding to it.
6. US SMALL BUSINESSES CONTINUE TO GET SQUEEZED. Small businesses do not have the pricing power of major corporations. They cannot easily absorb higher fuel, shipping, insurance, labor, rent, and financing costs. When input costs rise and consumers pull back, small businesses get trapped right in the middle. This is how an economic shock event becomes a margin shock, then a hiring shock, then a broader economic slowdown.
FINAL THOUGHT. This MOU is not just a foreign-policy failure on a truly EPIC scale, it’s more than that…. it is an economic pressure event.
This MOU did not produce a clean US strategic victory in any way, shape, or form, and with not a single US war objective being achieved…
And with that… now the economy is going to absorb the cost.
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