Investors need to buckle up because we are already witnessing crisis-like volatility.
Bond Market Historic Volatility
September 29 (King World News) – The Kobeissi Letter: US bond market volatility is at historic levels.
The MOVE index jumped +19% last week, its largest weekly increase since April 2025, following “Liberation Day.”
This index is also called the “VIX of bonds” and measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries.
This marks its 3rd-largest weekly increase since the 2022 bear market.
The move comes as the 10Y Note Yield jumped +17 basis points last week, to 5.17%, its highest level since June 2007.
At the same time, the 30Y Note Yield rose +16 basis points and surpassed 5.50% for the first time since June 2004.
To put this into perspective, in the week ending March 17th, 2023, the MOVE Index surged +29% following the US banking crisis, when 3 regional banks collapsed.
The US Treasury market is experiencing crisis-like volatility…
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For Those Keeping Score
Peter Boockvar: To those who keep telling me that interest rates are just back to the long term normal, I agree but as it comes after 15 years of abnormal, therein lies the problem for those whose debt is coming due this year and next that was priced prior to 2022. The refi options are where the rate shock is. Just imagine the real estate operator who priced a 3% loan five years ago and is repricing at 8% this year, an ongoing adjustment seen over the past few years for those whose debt came due.
We’ve of course seen the damage done to household mobility as many stick to their 3-4% mortgage rate and choose not to move. Or that SPAC and/or LBO in 2021 whose time has come to refi. Also, it is the rate of change and trajectory of the rate move that is the focus right now too, not the absolute level.
I guess not surprisingly at this point, still no progress on a deal with Iran. All ideas welcome on getting one. The move higher in oil prices has sent global bond yields up again. We remain bullish and long energy stocks, in E&P/refining, pipelines, drilling and services.
To the question on when the rise in rates and energy prices will matter for stocks, as seen again with the deteriorating market breadth, it’s already begun to have an impact. The only stick save at this point has been the AI trade.
Here’s an update on breadth, looking at both the cumulative advance/decline line…
… and the % of NYSE stocks trading above its 200 day moving average (lowest since June 2025).
A portion of the credit markets care now too, to highlight again the CCC high yield category that is now trading more than 1000 bps above Treasuries for the first time in 3 years with a yield to worst now at 15.1%.
Resorting back to verbal FX intervention, Atsushi Mimura, Vice Minister for International Affairs in Japan is saying that with regards to the desire and recent actions to stem the decline in the yen, “Japan’s prime minister, finance minister and the US have sent a very clear message. Markets should take the message at face value.” This follows a phone call on Friday between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama both agreeing that the yen is undervalued relative to the US dollar. After Friday’s 1% decline, the yen is up .2% today.
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