Last time we saw this it ignited historic bear markets in 1973 2000.
No Indication This Is Going To Stop
September 24 (King World News) – Peter Schiff: Ten-year Treasury yields are at a new 19-year high today, above 5.08%. The rise has been very orderly, yet relentless, and there is no indication it’s going to stop anytime soon, given the high risk of rising inflation eroding the value of both interest and principal payments.
Expensive
Peter Schiff: The 5-year Treasury yield is over 5%. The 2-year will soon follow. Next year the entire yield curve will have a 5% handle or higher. At 5% the annual interest cost of our $40 trillion national debt will be $2 trillion, 35% of tax revenue and a larger expense than Social Security.
Market Manipulation Keeps Bullish Hopes Alive
Peter Boockvar: I wish there were more people invited to this party. The excitement around the AI trade and now the potential of agents being our personal assistant I get but it comes with apathy towards most everything else. I say this because yesterday just 46% of the stocks that trade on the NYSE closed above its 200 day moving average. That was down from Friday, lower from about 64% one month ago and the least since March.
Also, I saw this tweet from the very good data miner:
Last Time We Saw This It Ignited Historic Bear Markets In 1973 & 2000
Jason Goepfert: We’ve never in almost 100 years seen breadth this bad.
The S&P is knocking on new highs but there are (many) more stocks at lows than highs.
The percentage of stocks in long-term uptrends is plunging.
The only remotely similar setups were January 1973 and November 1999.
I rarely comment on a 5 yr Treasury auction but in light of what is going on with bond yields, I’ll give you the stats because they are sending bond yields even higher with the 10 yr now at 5.12% and the 30 yr kissing 5.40%. The 5 yr by the way is at a 19 year high, along with 10s and 30s.
The auction was weak. The yield of 5.033% was a large 3 bps above when issued pricing. The bid to cover of 2.21 was below the previous one year average of 2.34%. Also, I had to go back to May 2024 to see the last time dealers were left with this much of a 5 yr auction at 11%.
Bottom line, a poor auction with Treasury trying to sell paper into a weak market and where yields weren’t attractive enough to bring in the buyers. The bond bear market continues on.
Gold & Silver
To listen to James Turk discussing the massive upside breakout that silver and gold are on the cusp of taking out CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss gold, silver, miners, oil, coming food shortages and more CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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Miners vs Tech Stocks, Plus A Look At The Surging Inflation Story CLICK HERE.
Buckle Up For What May Be The Wildest Week Of Trading This Year CLICK HERE.
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