Companies are preparing for shortages and higher prices.

September 30 (King World News) – Gregory Mannarino, writing for the Trends Journal:  CORE CAPITAL GOODS SURGE AS COMPANIES ARE PREPARING FOR SHORTAGES, INCREASING SUPPLY RISK, AND HIGHER PRICES MOVING FORWARD.

Moreover. The University of Michigan’s final September Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 48.1, down from 51.7 in August and 55.1 just one year ago.

We have two forces building at the same time.

  1. Capital goods orders rise as businesses/companies are planning for shortages/rising prices/supply risk and
  2. The US household is weakening faster… with rising inflation expectations moving forward.

The New York Federal Reserve stated that US households are more concerned about their personal finances and the labor market in August with expectations for personal unemployment (people losing their jobs), one year ahead, climbed to their highest level since April 2020.

Then we have this…

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Core capital goods orders. Companies are preparing for potential shortages of computers, electronics, and electrical equipment due to multiple factors. (LIONS… IF COMPANIES ARE LOADING UP ON THESE THINGS… SO SHOULD WE).

Businesses are rebuilding inventories and attempting to get ahead of potential shortages, supply disruptions and higher future prices. Restocking in anticipation of shortages and higher prices.

BUSINESSES ARE SAYING IN EFFECT… “WE NEED TO SECURE WHAT WE CAN GET NOW.”

Equipment. Components. Semiconductors. Energy intensive infrastructure. Raw materials. Inventory. Supply chain capacity.

WE NOW HAVE TWO SIDES OF THE SAME INFLATION PROBLEM.

Consumers see rising prices and think “I may need to cut back.”

Businesses see rising costs and supply uncertainty and think “I may need to buy sooner.”

And both behaviors can originate from the same underlying fear…

TOMORROW WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN TODAY. (FULL-STOP).

THAT is the real story.

  1. The household attempts to conserve purchasing power.
  2. The corporations/businesses attempt to secure supply while its still available AND, because prices will be higher moving forward. (SO LOAD UP NOW)

THAT IS NOT A NORMAL ECONOMIC SETUP.

Inflation anxiety, defensive households, corporate front loading, persistent inflation pressure, even greater household pressure.

THE WARNING

Household financial CON-fidence is deteriorating.

Consumers are becoming increasingly defensive.

AND BUSINESSES/CORPORATIONS ARE FRONT LOADING SUPPLIES…

Expect that the MSM will spin this, just as they spin “Consumers Are Spending More! That means our economy is strong…”

NO.. IT MEANS PEOPLE ARE FORCED TO SPEND MORE… AND GET LESS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.

AND CORPORATIONS/BUSINESSES ARE SPENDING MORE, PREPARING FOR SHORTAGES/SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, AND CONTINUING RISING PRICES…

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