Here is a look at what is happening with silver and the US dollar.
May 13 (King World News) – James Turk: No winner yet as silver’s coiled spring tightens. Will manipulators force silver lower like last time (blue oval), or will silver finally break out & head to $50 as its 1st stop on the way to the moon as US dollar purchasing power erodes from inflation and other ills? We’ll soon see.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Silver About To Move Decisively Either Up Or Down
Citi: Room For Tactical Dollar Rally
Naveen Nair at Citi: There could be further room for a tactical uptick in DXY even after the rally overnight. The signal we had flagged two weeks ago (the crossover in weekly momentum) suggests we could see ~103 in DXY at the minimum, while a move towards the 200d MA at 104.27 is also on the cards.
US Dollar Index
We had warned two weeks ago that the crossover in weekly slow stochastics has been a historically bullish indicator for DXY. Such a crossover in oversold territory has been an indicator of >3% upticks on all 6 occasions since 2020, and also on 7/9 occasions in the last 10y (the 2 exceptions being in 2017).
This signal suggests there is further room for a dollar uptick (another ~2% from current levels). The 3% rally suggests a move towards ~103 at the minimum. However, that is considering we see the lower end of what we have seen historically. Such crossovers have on average resulted in ~5% rallies.
We see resistance first at 102.29 (55d MA), followed by stronger resistance only at 104.27-104.40 (200d MA, 55w MA), which is near the 5% mark we mentioned earlier.
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