With the Dow surging 200 points and the Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs, is this about to rock global markets?
November 16 (King World News) – A portion of today’s note from legend Art Cashin: More Deterioration In Market Internals – Jason Goepfert, the sage at SentimenTrader notes some more cautionary developments.
Here’s a bit of what he wrote:
Adding to the warnings. In addition to the Hindenburg and Titanic warning signs, an abnormally large number of stocks are in bear markets. Among S&P 500 stocks, more than 30% are trading below their long-term averages. Combining these factors together, the only precedents were immediately before major corrections.
Major corrections? That doesn’t sound good.
Overnight And Overseas – In Asia, most markets saw a rebound from Wednesday’s broad weakness. Japan had a smart rally with India trailing behind. Chinese markets were mixed with Hong Kong having a moderate rally, while Shanghai had a modest loss.
In Europe, London is up fractionally but markets on the continent are having moderate rallies.
Among other assets, gold is up a touch, while crude is little changed and holding above $55. The euro is a bit weaker against the dollar and yields are a bit higher.
Consensus – House due to vote on tax bill this afternoon. If it passes during trading hours, form chart says stocks rally. If it fails, stocks sell off. Vote could also come after the close.
Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.
Also of importance…
A portion of today’s note from Jeff Saut at Raymond James: So I dialed up my friend and portfolio manager (PM) for HugganWhite Wealth Management, namely Craig White, yesterday given his statement, “PMs who are sitting on large unrealized cap gains for the year are likely quick to lock in returns for year-end performance and bonus reporting – further weakness will be catalyst.” Thinking about Craig’s comment caused us to pull up the chart of the S&P 500 (SPX/2564.62) to look at the “Trump Trade” that began on 11-7-16.
Interestingly, to the day, the SPX peaked on 11-7-17 one year later when anyone who bought the pre-election SPX rally was able to sell and “book” long-term capital gains; and, NOBODY is talking about this as a potential reason stocks peaked last week! This observation is Peter Lynch-like in that Peter made the simplest observations and by doing so made the most incredible investment insights.
Other metrics registering cautious signals include:
1) Breadth has had a negative divergence for weeks
2) Low volume despite new highs in many of the indices
3) The D-J Transports are at two month lows
4) Distribution of returns are wide – 29% of SPX stocks are
negative on the year, 33% of stocks are up between 0-10%, 38% of stocks up greater than 20% on the year – BIFURCATED!
5) S&P rolling 40-day correlations lowest in 5 years
6) Junk bonds have collapsed
7) The U.S. yield curve has flattened
And then there was this from the eagle-eyed Peter Boockvar (The Lindsey Group),
“Investors Intelligence said Bulls fell less than 1 point w/o/w to 63.5 from 64.4. Bears rose 1 point to a still microscopic 15.4. The Bull/Bear spread is off the highest level in 30+ years last week when it touched 50. This still extreme bullishness remains even though yesterday on the NYSE, the 52 week new low list exceeded the new high list by 129-113.”
Moving on to our models, our long-term proprietary model turned positive in October 2008 and has never turned negative since then. Our intermediate model flipped negative in August and has stay there. Our short-term model has flipped between positive and negative so many times since August you could erect a tollbooth at “go” to make any money! So where does this leave us? Regrettably it continues to leave us in cautious mode, a mode we have been in for months. Is this the pullback we have been looking for? It sure feels like it to us.
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