Here is more upside fuel for the gold bull market as the IMF says global inflation is set to accelerate.
IMF Says Global Inflation Is Set To Accelerate
July 15 (King World News) – Gerald Celente: The renewed hostilities along the Persian Gulf are likely to accelerate global inflation, roil supply chains, and bog down financial markets, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in an 8 July report.
The war did less damage to the world’s economy than had been expected, the IMF said, but the threat of renewed attacks from both sides “looms large,” it said.
The report was completed before Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. was “over” and both countries launched missile and drone attacks across the region.
Renewed fighting will hike commodity prices around the world, sharpen supply shortages, and flummox exchange rates, the IMF added.
Worldwide inflation this year will run at 4.7 percent, compared to 4.1 percent in 2025, and will retreat to 3.7 percent next year, the agency said in its new World Economic Outlook report.
Also, this year, the war’s effects will shrink the global economic growth rate to 3 percent, the report forecasts. It was 3.5 percent in 2025. In 2027, growth will rise back by 3.4 percent.
The world economy’s relatively mild response to the war has been largely due to the release of oil from corporate and national reserves, according to the IMF. Now those reserves are nearing crucial lows and “could reach stress levels should supply disruptions persist or hoarding gather steam,” it said…
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“The disinflation trend we’ve been seeing since early 2024 has stalled,” Petya Brooks, the IMF’s deputy research director, told the Financial Times. “The global economy has done better than feared [but] the news on inflation is less encouraging.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate this year and reduce it in 2027, the IMF expects. Traders have priced in a quarter-point boost by October.
The IMF also called the Bank of England’s current 3.75 percent base rate “appropriate,” but traders are expecting at least one rate bump by the bank this year and an increase by the European Central Bank as soon as September.
TREND FORECAST:
The world’s GDP might increase in value by 3 percent this year but the bulk of that will be due to investments related to AI data center construction.
Outside of the AI bubble, the volume of trade may shrink. Shortages of materials, disrupted supply chains, inflation, and persistently weak national economies are working against maintaining normal trade flows.
The longer the Iran War remains unsettled, the smaller the world’s non-AI trade volume will become.
And now, with President Trump ramping up the Iran War, a bad economic condition will worsen. Indeed, last week Brent crude was selling at around $72 per barrel, but because of the ramped-up Iran War, it is now selling at $85.25 per barrel. It was at $87.45 earlier in the day, but the prices dropped after Trump reversed his earlier line … that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would have to pay a 20 percent protection fee. He had posted on his Truth (Lie) Social Post that “Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States.”
Again, there are two sides (at least) to every story, but in the U.S., we only hear one of them. Indeed, according Anadolu Ajansı news, “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) targeted and disabled commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after the ships allegedly used unauthorized routes. Tehran claims these paths violate a maritime memorandum with the U.S. and retaliated with missile and drone strikes against American bases in the Gulf.
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