On the heels of the dollar moving higher and the gold and silver markets getting hit, today one of the greats in the business discusses today’s action, and also included are some questions and answers about the market, precious metals.
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
June 21 (King World News) – The “remain” party continued overnight, with most equity markets rallying about 1%. Naturally, the U.S. stock market joined in, though to a slightly lesser degree, with the indices just fractionally higher through midday. In the afternoon the market strengthened somewhat and with an hour to go it was about 0.3% higher (with the Nasdaq lagging)…
Continue reading the Bill Fleckenstein piece below…
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Away from stocks, green paper was stronger, oil lost 1%, fixed income was slightly weaker, and the metals lost ground, with gold leading the charge lower, declining 1.5% to silver’s 1%.
Semi Serious
In the if-it-weren’t-so-serious-it-would-be-humorous department, today while the Fed and other central banks wring their hands over deflation and the fears of it intensifying, Werner Enterprises (WERN), one of the country’s largest trucking companies, preannounced weaker Q2 results due to “sluggish freight market conditions…driver pay [and] contractor costs.”
The mass delusion that we have on so many fronts is simply mind-boggling, from the belief in the ability of the central banks to lead us out of the mess they created — and continue to make worse — to the fear of deflation when most people are being eaten alive by exactly the opposite. The mainstream press is so foolish and they repeat inaccurate and incorrect phrases so often, people begin to believe them, e.g., a 10% decline is a correction, a 20% move is a bull/bear market, we’re experiencing deflation, etc.
Dollars and Senseless
As I have noted many times, when central bankers say “deflation” what they really mean is “depression.” However, we are not in the midst or on the verge of a depression, though if sound policies were pursued after the completely maniacal ones of the last 20 years a depression could easily occur. When people read the history books from this era they are not going to believe that literally hundreds of millions of people could be fooled so badly for so long, although they should have no trouble concluding that the Fed — not David Copperfield — was the greatest illusionist of all time.
Included below are four questions and answers from the Q&A’s with Bill Fleckenstein
Bonus Q&A
Question: Bill, forgive me if this has been asked before (recently) — or if it is overly optimistic. AND: I am not a trader. I’ve tried it. I learned that it’s not something at which I can produce interesting returns. So this is not about buying and selling on a daily/weekly basis.
HOWEVER: Seems to me that, in the case of Gold (the metal, not the miners) — we’ve recently had a case of higher highs and higher lows. I’ve always liked to see that in something that I own (and I own a lot of this shiny stuff). Am I making too much of not enough data? Just trying to satisfy my “jones” for positive news. Thanks for all that you’ve done for my family.
Answer from Fleck: I’m sorry, but you lost me. If you are asking if the technical pattern is bullish I would say yes. It is a bull market. That is all you need to know. 🙂
Question: A reader asked if AGQ is “safe”, to which you responded “Not safe at all. It is leveraged 2-to-1.” Actually, the leverage can be much greater (in both directions). In the 2009-2011 bull market, SLV bounced 300%, while AGQ bounced over 1000%. The larger problem with AGQ is “decay”. Anyone thinking of purchasing it instead of SLV should look at charts comparing AGQ with SLV over the long run.
Answer from Fleck: “I have warned a zillion times about leveraged ETF tracking error, in addition to the leverage. Leveraged ETFs always end up headed to zero.”
Question: One of the things I look at to gauge the health of the economy is rail and trucking stats. “North American rail volume for the week ending Jun. 11, 2016, on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 333,806 carloads, down 7.9 percent compared with the same week last year, and 335,295 intermodal units, down 6.5 percent compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 669,101 carloads and intermodal units, down 7.2 percent. North American rail volume for the first 23 weeks of 2016 was 14,996,762 carloads and intermodal units, down 7.7 percent compared with 2015.”
AAR REPORTS WEEKLY RAIL TRAFFIC FOR THE WEEK ENDING JUNE 11, 2016
and May trucking report is the same.
Answer from Fleck: “Well, that just corroborates the view that the economy isn’t that strong.”
Question: Comment: (Bill Fleckenstein is) Traveling Thursday and Friday!!. Will gold hit $1150 or $1450? Fasten your seatbelt. Please have a safe journey 🙂
Answer from Fleck: I’ll take the upside. 🙂
***To subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s fascinating Daily Thoughts CLICK HERE.
***KWN has just released an extraordinary audio interview with Egon von Greyerz discussing new information about the endgame, the gold and silver markets, and much more, and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***Also just released: Two Remarkable Illustrations Show An Extreme Amount Of Irrational Fear Built Into Markets CLICK HERE.
***Andrew Maguire’s remarkable KWN audio interview has now been released, and you can access it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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