Is 2015 about to end with a remarkable event that hasn’t happened in 140 years?
December 28 (King World News) – Here is a portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: Three Disparate But Noteworthy Items – My friend and fellow market veteran, Jim Brown, over at the estimable Option Investor usually ends his weekend report with a section he calls “Random Thoughts”. Here are three of this week’s that really caught my attention:
The S&P has not ended the year in negative territory in a year ending in “5” since 1875. That is a 140- year-old streak. Yes, statistics are a funny thing. If you look long enough and hard enough you can always find something interesting that has zero to do with market fundamentals.
A 140 streak is nothing to sneeze at. Here’s another item that for some reason never made Page 1.
Saudi air defense systems shot down another ballistic missile fired from Yemen that was aimed at oil installations in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. The missile was aimed at the Saudi Aramco oil compound in Jizan. This was the sixth ballistic missile fired toward Saudi oil facilities in the last week. If the Yemen rebels ever successfully hit a Saudi oil facility, we could see oil prices back over $60 within days.
And here is yet another.
The bears are loading up for the mother of all put opportunities. Lyons Fund Management tracks the put/call ratios on the S&P-100 ($OEX) because traders in those options are right more often than they are wrong. The threshold level of 2 puts to every call is seen as a market indicator. Between 1999 and 2014 the ratio has only been over 2.0 on 15 days. On Monday, it rose to 3.3. In 1999 and 2007 the extreme readings were accurate predictors of market tops. However, in 2003 and 2014 when the 2.0 level was breached there was no sell off so the indicator is not infallible. The extreme levels we have today are a warning sign according to Lyons.
And more off-beat indicator to watch. Thanks Jim.
Overnight And Overseas – London is celebrating Boxing Day today and that makes other markets thin and difficult to gauge. Markets look generally mixed but Shanghai got slugged. Crude is weak and that’s weighing on equity futures. Gold is soft as are several other metals and commodities. The yield on the 10 year is a bit higher.
Consensus – Crude is probably back in the driver’s seat for equities. Let’s see if the Santa Rally can restart or did those two strong days sap its strength? Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Paul Craig Roberts – This Now Threatens To Destroy Our Civilization CLICK HERE.
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