With continued volatility in global markets, today one of the greats in the business sent King World News a powerful piece showing that discussed a particular hate mail he received as well as the fascinating trading we have seen in major markets. He also discussed what is happening in the metals and currency markets.
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
April 29 (King World News) – Overnight markets were weaker, but I don't think that made much difference to anyone in America. I was perhaps a bit premature yesterday in saying that earnings season was over when in fact we had not heard from the biggest market cap of all, that being Apple (and I was wrong about the NFP report; it is next Friday, not this Friday). As everyone expected, that company did have a monstrous quarter, as pent-up demand for the new phone (and an upgrade to bigger screens) led to the last couple of gargantuan quarters Apple has posted.
The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From The Tape
Having said that, Mac sales weren't all that great, nor were tablets, and when examining the proposition of an $800 billion company with $200 billion in revenues growing fast enough to support the valuation (yes, I know, 16 to 17 times earnings doesn't seem expensive in today's stock market), but we are talking about an $800 billion company that has already pulled a lot of rabbits out of its hat, so growth prospectively may be more difficult. It may be useful, mainly from a market sentiment standpoint, that after being up a couple of dollars overnight, Apple dropped a couple of dollars and took the entire tape with it before the dip was perfunctorily bought and we were back to flattish by midday (and Apple was as well).
I intend to keep my eye on Apple as a potential exhaustion indicator and as a tactical short candidate, because I don't really feel like an $800 billion market cap can go against me that hard. Besides, I think there is an outside chance that Apple has seen the best it will see (which is why I shorted a bit of it today). If so, of course, there are going to be better choices in the Apple supply chain, and if in fact Apple is finished, other stocks will be vulnerable as well. However, I would like to be clear, I don't want to make too much out of that speculation on my part.
In the afternoon, the market danced sideways around unchanged, which is where it closed (the Dow was stronger thanks to IBM, which rallied 2% on a dividend hike).
Miners To Lead Gold And Silver?
Away from stocks, green paper was weaker, with both the euro and the Canadian dollar chugging higher. As I noted yesterday, these currencies may actually have turned. Fixed income was weaker, oil was a nonevent, and the metals were higher, with silver gaining 1.5% to gold's 1%. The miners were quite strong as well. Barrick Gold reported a poor quarter, and it rallied, while Newmont has continued its rally. Thus, the miners may be finally ready to go.
What we'd like to see in a perfect world is a breakout, which one could argue is occurring in the GDX on big volume. The one thing the miners have been unable to do, besides rally consistently, is to rally on big volume. So if we can get some good-sized volume in the near future, it would be a supportive data point in my opinion.
Special Delivery – My Hate Mail Indicator Says Major Market Turn Is At Hand
Lastly, from a hate mail indicator standpoint, I received what may be a very timely example today … I draw attention to it because of the uncanny ability of hate mailers over the years to nail important turns in whichever market they were taunting me about. ***To subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein's fascinating Daily Thoughts CLICK HERE.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: A Stunning Look At The War In The Silver Market CLICK HERE.
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