There are two important notes below, one is the wisdom of half a century working in the financial world and the second is an important update on where things stand in the gold market.
First, regarding the gold market…
Many KWN readers around the world are wondering what is next for the gold market after hitting $1,250. The note below from Bill Fleckenstein goes a long way towards explaining where gold and the stock market stand:
“At the risk of jinxing myself, it does appear that the trend has changed and psychology is getting a little more negative toward stocks and a little friendlier toward gold. Related to that, it is clear to me psychology has shifted from the Fed being in control and automatic rate hikes are coming to folks praying for the Fed to be more “data dependent.” Of course, while that might be enough to help gold, given where psychology and positioning have been, that won’t be enough to help the stock market.”
Wisdom Of Half A Century In This Business
December 10 (King World News) – Below is a must read portion of today’s note from Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James:
“After 28 years at this post, and 22 years before this in money management, I can sum up whatever wisdom I have accumulated this way: The trick is not to be the hottest stock-picker, the winning forecaster, or the developer of the neatest model; such victories are transient. The trick is to survive. Performing that trick requires a strong stomach for being wrong, because we are all going to be wrong more often than we expect.
The future is not ours to know. But it helps to know that being wrong is inevitable and normal, not some terrible tragedy, not some awful failing in reasoning, not even bad luck in most instances. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future (maybe the real trick is persuading clients of that inexorable truth). Look around at the long-term survivors at this business and think of the much larger number of colorful characters who were once in the headlines, but who have since disappeared from the scene.” — Peter Bernstein, author, historian, economist (2001)
Looking around, we don’t see many people who used to be in this business…
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Maybe they just couldn’t take being wrong. Or, maybe their clients couldn’t take their claiming they were always right. Or, maybe they got tired of issuing lots of predictions while, at the same time, watching the stock market going nowhere this year. One of the things my father drilled into my head goes like this:
“Son, if you think the stock market is going up, be bullish. If you think it is going down, be bearish. But for gosh sakes, make a ‘call’, because there are too many people in this business that talk out of both sides of their mouths so that, no matter what the market does, they can say, ‘See, I told you that was going to happen.’ And, if you make ‘calls’, you are going to be wrong. The real trick for a successful investor, or trader, is to be wrong quickly for a de minimis loss of capital.”
KWN has now released the powerful and timely audio interview with Andrew Maguire and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
ALSO RELEASED: Greyerz – Central Banks Have Triggered A Global Collapse CLICK HERE TO READ.
***KWN has now released the remarkable audio interview with Art Cashin discussing everything from today’s violent trading, to the possibility of a new ice age, what to expect in the gold market and much more and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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