Stocks surged while oil and gold gave up early gains after the decision by the Fed to drop the "Considerable time" pledge on interest rates. King World News reached out to one of the top hedge fund managers in Asia to get his take on what has transpired and what to expect in 2015.
Eric King: "Bill, what should people expect to see as we head into the end of this year and what about 2015?"
William Kaye: “My thoughts are that we are headed for a close that would be targeted below the close in 2013. At the end of last year gold closed just above $1,200. It certainly appears there is a desire by Western central planners to see gold finish this year below that number.
They will then run headlines in the mainstream media that gold continues to be in a bear market. So the trading itself will be volatile but what I will be looking for is real difficulty in getting gold in size. In other words the kind of size in physical gold that you need to satisfy sovereign orders and the mega wealthy….
Continue reading the William Kaye interview below…
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The Hong Kong hedge fund manager went on to precict a banner year for the gold market: "As we see geopolitical tensions intensify, this would portend a flight to safety. Also, countries such as Russia, who feel they are being encircled, as well as wealthy individuals who, responding to the geopolitical uncertainty, will want to increase their exposure to the ultimate safe haven asset — gold.
So I think gold will be very well bid as we get into 2015 as the geopolitical as well as the market tensions intensify. We will also see increased volatility which should be very negative for equity markets.
But for the time being gold is leaving the vaults in the West and quickly being sent where it is needed so that the acute shortages or strains in the system are not allowed to intensify, and for the moment have even decreased a bit.
But I think when gold starts to move and there are shortages in the system it will be very hard to project how high the price of gold will rise. One of the interesting features about gold is that once it starts to develop a new leg of this secular bull market — the climax leg — it will start to build on its own momentum.
Gold is one of those asset classes that begins to excite new bidders as it builds on its own momentum. Part of the problem gold has had in starting any kind of sustainable rally since 2011 is that any rallies have been nipped in the bud and gold has been unable to establish any kind of sustainable momentum.
This has stopped an even wider audience from entering the gold market. My guess is that will change in 2015. So the important buying that will initiate the climax leg of what is a secular bull market in gold is still to come. That will be initiated by sovereigns such as Russia, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, etc. But it will also come from extremely wealthy individuals who buy in similar sovereign-type size.
I think you will see the serious bids in gold in the final leg come from those sources. But as it builds on itself, retail excitement will return to the space as it always does. That’s where things will really start to get exciting. That’s where you will start to see important targets get taken out such as $2,000 an ounce and higher that just don’t seem imaginable today.
$2,000 gold, which was in view in 2011 but doesn’t seem sensible to some or even imaginable today, that type of target will come well into view as we get into 2015 and bidding excitement builds on itself. If that’s the case and shortages continue to persist as the buyers show up and there just isn’t enough gold around, I think at that stage things will get very, very exciting. But for the moment, we have to wait for gold to begin the upward surge that will eventually take it through the $2,000 level.”
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