As the world watches the trade wars and currency wars escalate, this will be only the third time we have seen this in 35 years.

Confidence Game
September 18 (King World News) – Here is a portion of today’s note from Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:  Signs of rising consumer confidence are virtually everywhere, most obviously in various surveys which have tracked it for decades. Preliminary readings from the University of Michigan survey showed another uptick, to one of the highest readings in a decade…

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Jason Goepfert continues:  There are various theories about what the means, most of which are unproven. One of those is that high confidence = rising sales = an improving dollar. That’s a concern for investors now because the dollar is being blamed for carnage in emerging markets, which has fed back into concern over risky assets in general.

US Dollar Topped And Ready For A Major Reversal?

A simple look at a chart of the dollar versus consumer confidence should make anyone question that theory, however. It fails the eyeball test, because from the looks of things, high confidence seemed to coincide with peaks in the dollar (or nearly so) while low confidence preceded bottoms in the dollar.

Also of importance…

Top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick’s chart also warns the US dollar may plunge

King World News note:  Any weakness in the US dollar will trigger a bullish reaction in the gold and silver markets.  With hedge fund and speculative shorts near all-time record levels, that would set the stage for a massive short squeeze.

To subscribe or try a free 2 week trial to the internationally acclaimed work that Jason Goepfert produces at SentimenTrader CLICK HERE.

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