On the heels of today’s massive sell off, which saw the Dow off more than 700 at one point, some serious trouble is now brewing.
Serious Trouble Is Brewing
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
April 2 (King World News) – The market opened with a profound thud, and within 90 minutes had fallen by about 2%, plus or minus. The Nasdaq was heaviest, as it lost more than 2%, while the S&P dove to the 200-day moving average, then fell through it by 0.5% or so (and broke the prior low as well) before it managed to bounce around midday...
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However, from there the market dropped to a loss of roughly 3%, with the Dow also breaking (and the Nasdaq only 2% away from) its 200-day MA. From there another bounce began that trimmed the days damage to about 2%-plus.
March: In Like a Lion, Out Like a Bear
I think it is a pretty big deal to see the market this aggressively lower after a three-day weekend and the start of the new quarter. That’s not to say it can’t bounce, but it is a potent signal. We can now say that we have had a failed rally, which really ups the chances that we have seen the peak.
Away from stocks, green paper was mixed but slightly higher, fixed income was very slightly higher, oil fell 2.5%, and the metals were higher, with silver gaining 1.5% to gold’s 1%.
Obviously, we can’t make too much out of one day, but this quarter is certainly starting out quite a bit differently than most over the last 10 years. And, as I noted, I suggest it is a sign of serious trouble brewing.
Included below is one question and answer from the Q&A’s with Bill Fleckenstein.
Gold Miners: 1987, 2008 vs Today
Question: In the event of a crash in the next few weeks/months, do you think the miners are likely to repeat the 1987 pattern (or the fall 2008 pattern when they fell with the market but recovered much faster)? Or do you think they are at a very different stage of the cycle / so cheap that that could hold their values very well?
Answer from Fleck: “Miners aren’t a hedge against the stock market declining, they are protection against and beneficiaries of bad central bank policy. The setup now is radically different from 1987. When stocks get materially weak, that will change the whole storyline about how well the CB policies work. That’s how the stock market and the metals are related now. In 1987, metals ran before and into the first part of the crash, but then people worried about deflation because stocks collapsed while bonds yielded 10%, so metals got sold. As I said, the setup is now totally different.”
ALSO RELEASED: James Turk – Dow Plunges 650+ Points As Silver Readies For Upside Explosion CLICK HERE TO READ.
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