Here is a look at the Fed decision to keep interest rates unchanged, plus a situation that could be a hugely bullish catalyst for gold and silver.

This Could Be A Hugely Bullish Catalyst For Gold & Silver
April 29 (King World News) –
Jesse Colombo:  Watching the U.S. Dollar Index is key to understanding the precious metals complex, particularly during this war, as I explained in a recent report.

After surging during the most acute phase of the war in March but failing to break above the key 100 resistance level, the index has since pulled back, easing pressure on precious metals.

Weakness In The Dollar Bullish For Gold & Silver
The dollar is now largely taking its cues from developments related to the war, reacting to each headline, with the prospect of de-escalation being the most bearish for the dollar and bullish for precious metals. As a reminder, weakness in the dollar is bullish for precious metals, and strength is bearish.

The Dollar Index is now trading between the 96 support level and the 100 resistance level, and a decisive break of either level is needed to determine the next directional trend, though my bias is to the downside given how overvalued it is


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Fed Decision
Peter Boockvar:
  The FOMC statement was about identical to the March release but that was an issue for some members. After saying the fed funds range was left intact, this line was repeated, “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks” and that bothered three of the members.

This sentence implies the committee is still leaning to cutting rates again but Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan “did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.” Stephen Miran again wanted to cut rates, quite the look thru on higher energy prices and rising prices of other things that use it as a raw material.

The only other thing with the statement of note was a slight tweak to the inflation comment. In March they said “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Today they took out ‘somewhat’ and added color, “Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.”

Bottom line, we know there has been quite an internal debate on how to manage monetary policy in the current environment and the dissenters today outside of Miran, want the committee to be more neutral in its outlook with rates and not be leaning to cutting rates. I would have voted for the same thing. The world has changed over the past two months and maybe when the Strait fully reopens things go back quickly to where we stood prior to the war. Or maybe not. Why not just sit on the 50 yard line and wait to see how this concludes rather than lean in one direction?

The fed funds futures December contract is now pricing in ZERO chance of a rate cut this year.

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