Another Gold Bull Market Catalyst, Plus A Look At The Big Shift

Here is another gold bull market catalyst, plus a look at the big shift.

Another Gold Bull Market Catalyst
April 24 (King World News) – Otavio Costa:  Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out:

The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin.

KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: We Have A Worldwide Oil Crisis And Very Few Rigs To Meet Demand. Oil Headed Above $150 Which Will Be Massively Inflationary And Yet Another Gold Bull Market Catalyst

That has serious implications for future oil supply, and the market is still underestimating the magnitude of the issue, particularly in the context of tightening global dynamics.

“Experts” often attribute this decline to efficiency gains, but that’s only part of the story.

What tends to be overlooked is that rig count leads production, and we have yet to fully feel the downstream impact of this contraction in activity…

Listen to the greatest Egon von Greyerz audio interview ever
by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

The Big Shift
The Kobeissi Letter:  Traders are positioning for a major shift in US funding markets:

Daily trading volume in futures tied to the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Federal Funds Rate surged to a record 56,590 contracts on Tuesday.

KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Expect Tightening Liquidity Conditions In The Future Which May Put An End To Easily Accessible Cheap Money

SOFR is the cost of borrowing cash overnight against US Treasury securities, and is closely tied to the Fed interest rate, making it one of the most important reference rates in global financial markets.

Currently, SOFR is trading at 3.63%, just below the federal funds rate of 3.64%, a sign that cash is still plentiful in the financial system.

Traders are now betting this spread will turn positive, expecting borrowing costs to rise above the Fed’s rate, signaling that cash is becoming harder to access.

This comes as the Fed is cutting its monthly Treasury bill purchases to $25 billion from $40 billion, while the Treasury is expected to increase the size of its T-bill auctions in the coming weeks to rebuild its cash balance toward a $900 billion target by the end of June.

Both moves reduce the amount of cash available in the financial system, tightening liquidity conditions that have kept overnight borrowing cheap throughout 2026.

Money market liquidity is set to shrink.

Propaganda And Tweets No Longer Working
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  The crude oil market is increasingly “watching the ball, not the players.” as traders and investors have shifted their focus away from diplomatic rhetoric and toward tangible action on the water. To date, besides the prolonged ceasefire offering some hopes, there have been no action capable of cooling the upward pressure on prices. Aside from involuntary demand destruction and reduced refinery run rates due to surging input costs, the fundamental supply-side tightness remains unaddressed. In this environment, the market has to focus on what is actually happening on the water, rather than what is being promised or said in a random social media post.

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