With gold and silver continuing to trade firm, today one of the greats in the business sent King World News a fantastic piece where he fielded important questions on the gold market and QE4.
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
October 13 (King World News) – Overnight equity markets were generally lower, as were the SPOOs, but once trading got under way the market scrambled back to unchanged, which is where it sat through midday before it began to leak in the afternoon. By day’s end the indices had lost about 0.75%…
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Bill Fleckenstein continues: “Away from stocks, green paper was weaker, fixed income was higher, oil fell 1.5%, and the metals were slightly higher.
What’s Inside This Time?
This week hopefully will give us some clues as to how the market is going to weather the earnings season. It seems to me that expectations are quite high that the bad news has already been discounted, which is difficult for me to believe given that stock prices have not declined much relative to where they were when the can of weaker results was kicked down the road to this quarter.
Said differently, I don’t think much negative news has been discounted at all, but we are about to find out starting tonight with Intel, where the company has made a tremendous push to convince everyone that everything is just wonderful there, despite the fact that the PC business is dead and datacenter spending is slowing. If they somehow manage to pull this quarter off, Q4 is going to be impossible, but we will know soon enough what their version of the situation is.
Included below are three questions and answers from today’s Q&A with Bill Fleckenstein. The questions are from his subscribers and they get to read Fleckenstein’s answers every day.
Bonus Q&A
Question: How does a good short seller game the coming QE4? Do you sell all your shorts before each Fed Meeting or minutes? How do you keep from being decimated by a QE4 announcement.
Answer from Fleck: “There can’t be any new QE until the market cracks first, so nothing to worry about Fed-wise until that happens.“
Question: Bill, I hope that I am wrong but I believe the market is going higher regardless of fundamentals, which are horrible, because the Fed has made it clear from their hike on / hike off two-step that however incredulous they are, they are committed to keeping this market afloat and with a recession looming, QE4, direct QE, or at least NIRP, will be deployed at the first sign of market weakness. We’ll figure out whether any of these work to keep the markets afloat, we know they don’t do anything for the underlying economy, and until we see their policies fail to prop up the market, people will keep buying the dip until it doesn’t work anymore. Whatever happened to free markets?
Answer from Fleck: “Greenspan hijacked the market in the mid-1990s and it has gotten worse since, but no hike isn’t the same as QE, so you are panicked over nothing.“
Question: Bill, you have stated a few times that your expectation is that when the trend changes in gold to the upside, we will see big moves on low volume (the ones you call “line jobs”) to the upside as opposed to the downside, which we have seen for several years. What, trend wise, do you think is required for that to begin? Is it a crossing of the 200 day moving average, or some other sign post? Thanks very much.
Answer from Fleck: “Those line jobs are a function of stops, guys running stops, and pushing the market. When will that happen on the upside? When the market is trending higher and people want to muscle it higher.“
***To subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s fascinating Daily Thoughts CLICK HERE.
***KWN has now released the incredible audio interview with Michael Belkin, the man who advises the most prominent sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and institutional funds in the world. Belkin covers the historic rally he expects in gold and the mining shares as well as what he expects to see in global markets for the rest of 2015, and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Warning On The Markets And A Look At The Destruction Of A Culture And A Nation CLICK HERE.
***KWN has also now released the powerful audio interview with Rick Rule, discussing what he expects to see in gold, silver and the mining shares as well as what he expects to see in global markets for the rest of 2015, and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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