Ray Dalio has warned that America losing the war with Iran signals the end of the US empire.
July 1 (King World News) – Ray Dalio: The United States’ handling of Iran’s taking of the Strait of Hormuz has led global leaders, especially those in Asia, to conclude that the American public does not have the willingness to endure the discomforts of war and that the US doesn’t have the resources to fight wars on two or more fronts, so it doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire. This situation looks a lot like the British handling of Egypt’s taking of the Suez Canal, which signaled the end of the British Empire.
More specifically, it is now inconceivable that the American public would support an American military response to Chinese pressures a) aimed at Taiwan or b) against countries that are trying to contain China. This has changed the thinking and actions of leaders in countries that are US allies and that are hosting American bases as a counterweight to China under the assumption that the US will protect them. Obviously, this has big implications for the world geopolitical order, especially for Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and, to a lesser degree, other Asian countries.
This change has been reflected in the many visits to Beijing by heads of state and their delegations to build tribute-type relationships with President Xi, but the most significant reflection of this shift was President Xi making clear to President Trump, in the form of a veiled threat, that planned US arms sales to Taiwan would not be appreciated by China…
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Meanwhile at the Fed
Peter Boockvar: I think Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said it best at the central bank forum on stage with peers Kevin Warsh, Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey. “We have to be humble in this time of uncertainty.” In other words, and I think those thoughts are shared by the others, we just have to wait and see how events play out and they won’t commit until they have to.
Specifically on the heels of the ECB rate HIKE, Lagarde acknowledged they were in a different place than the Fed and BoE with a deposit rate of just 2% and inflation now above that.
With respect to Warsh, he reiterated again that we won’t get any clues as to what he’ll want to do next in terms of policy (which could be different or the same as his colleagues), if anything in the coming meetings. What I’m most interested in but yet to be revealed by him is his views of the concept of the ‘neutral rate.’ Powell’s view was that he’d know what that rate is when he sees it as it is a very econometrically modeled figure. In other words, who really knows what it is. The dot plot has the long term ‘neutral rate’ view at 1% real but does Warsh have a view on that? In the meantime, markets are going to be left very much on its toes without the hand holding of the central bank.
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