We haven’t seen this since 1973, plus China comments on the yuan.
Records Being Broken
October 9 (King World News) – Here is a portion of what Peter Boockvar wrote today as the world awaits the next round of monetary madness: The NFIB small business optimism index for September moderated to 107.9 from 108.8 and which was the record high. Higher wages continued as current compensation plans rose to a record, up by 5 pts to 37% (see chart below).
Paying More To Hire & Retain Qualified Employees
Future plans were up by 3 pts to match the most since 1989.
This was driven by Positions Not Able To Fill which held at the highest level since 1973 (see chart below).
But Still Can’t Find Enough Qualified Workers
The NFIB said:
“There is extraordinary competition for workers in this historically tight labor market. Small business owners are investing more in their employees to attract and keep qualified workers.”
The areas where workers are most needed are in construction, manufacturing and transportation…
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Boockvar continues: Bottom line, small business optimism is still near historic highs in response to lower taxes and regulatory relief but the lack of labor supply is clearly showing the limits to faster economic growth. Employees are enjoying the best wage situation in this cycle while employers have to manage profit margins as interest rates are of course rising too.
Regarding China And The Yuan
Lastly, a foreign ministry spokesman in China said that they have no intention of using “competitive devaluation” as a tool to boost exports to offset the tariffs. The yuan is mixed in response as the onshore value is higher while the offshore move is lower. I’m not a fan of how this relationship with China is progressing. While each wants to protect its interests, as they should, a growing adversarial situation that seems to be getting worse with the two biggest economies in the world is not a good thing.
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