With the Dow surging along with the dollar, today 3 veterans share crucial updates on major markets.
Here is a portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: Conflicts And Causes In Oil Inventories – Last night, my good friend and fellow trading veteran, Jim Brown over at Option Investor, wrote this on crude inventories:
Tomorrow is all about earnings and oil. The API inventories tonight showed a 6.2 million barrel build and WTI traded about 70 cents lower at $41.50 but then stabilized to wait on the EIA numbers on Wednesday morning. Cushing inventories declined -1.5 million barrels because the 590,000 bpd Keystone pipeline was halted for seven days. That pipeline flows into Cushing Oklahoma. However, we should see the EIA inventories build because of the backlog of tankers waiting to unload in Houston after those fog closures of the Houston ship channel the prior two weeks. Even if the EIA inventories show a big build as expected, the price of crude will probably not decline much because everyone is waiting for some miracle in Doha this Sunday.
A Caution From A Friend – In his morning note to some friends, Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group wrote this:
According to II, Bulls fell to 41.2 from 45.4 last week and down from 47.4 back on March 23rd. Bears were unchanged at 27.8 and thus the Correction side was the beneficiary of those from the Bull side. Those expecting a Correction (still bullish and want to buy the pullback) rose to the highest in two months at 31. With so many investing decisions made mostly based on what investors think the Fed will do, it’s easy to understand why after a sharp two month gain in stocks on the heels of a dovish Fed and a weaker dollar, that many only expect a correction rather than a resumption of the bear market.
With the stock market now very expensive again, there is no room for error in coming weeks as we see earnings. I’ll say again, about 70% of companies will beat estimates but that is as they always do. Thus, that should be viewed as normal, not good. Anything above or below that ratio should be the benchmark in scoring earnings season. With high valuations, declining earnings, anemic global growth and most importantly central banks hitting a monetary wall both in terms of actual policy and reputation, I remain of the belief that we are no longer in a bull market.
Overnight And Overseas – You’d think it was St. Patrick’s Day all over again as market after market around the globe are glowing green.
In Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and India were all significantly higher as were almost all of the emerging markets.
In Europe, there is similar unanimity among equity markets.
JPMorgan’s results were good enough to have the stock trading up 3%. U.S. futures are solidly higher. Crude and gold are seeing some profit-taking. Yields are a smidge higher.
Consensus – So far doubts about purported “oil freeze” deals are being shrugged off by global equities. We will continue to watch crude, to see if this area around the 200 DMA provides resistance.
Morning data (PPI and Retail Sales) will be pored over for hints on the economy. Fed Tan Book this afternoon may hold few, to no, surprises.
On rally, watch S&P resistance at 2075/2080.
Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.
***KWN has now released the extraordinary audio interview with legend Art Cashin discussing his greatest fear and the the implication of this for the gold market and much more and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***KWN has also now released the fantastic audio interview with Rick Rule discussing the gold and silver markets and what he is doing with his own money right now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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