As people continue to digest breaking news out of Greece and around the world, the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year-old Richard Russell, warned that the U.S. government and the Fed are scared to death. Russell also covered everything from Joe Granville, Russia and China, to silver and an ominous warning from John Williams.
Wisdom From My Old Friend, The Late Joe Granville
Richard Russell: "According to my old friend, the late Joe Granville, a bear market ends on the day when the number of new lows on the NYSE hits its highest number. Conversely, a bull market ends when new 52-week highs on the NYSE hits their peak. But that hasn't been working lately. Analysts are pulling their hair out trying to find a technical method that will call a top to this market.
My question – why beat your brains out trying to identify a top when you can be on the sidelines just watching one of the most complicated advances in stock market history?
This bull market has knocked out hundreds of hedge funds over the last few years. Ironically, it has been shown that most hedge funds have not been able to keep up with simple index funds. My own advice is that if a market is “trendless” and the best traders can’t make money in it, then who the hell needs it?
If you don’t have to be in the market, my position all along has been to stay on the sidelines and watch this puzzling show.
U.S. Government And The Fed Scared To Death
Industrial output has been down five months in a row. This suggests that the US economy is on the edge of dipping into recession. Quietly, the Fed and the government must be scared to death with what’s happening. The idea of raising rates must be the furthest thing from the Fed’s mind at this time.
Turning back to the 1930s, I believe the government will repeat the Great Depression solution. That means make-work programs backed by massive new borrowing.
China And Russia Military Alliance Pressures United States
With Russia and China teaming up against the US and building up their respective military power, I expect the Pentagon to scream “HELP” and ask for a massive new military buildup.
The only thing more expensive than actual war is a buildup in preparation for war. I expect a huge new military program to be put in place.
The question now is whether the Fed is ready to raise rates. If they’re going to raise rates they should do it this year since raising rates in a presidential election year would have negative political implications.
Ominous Warning From John Williams
The other question is whether the US economy can survive a rate increase this year. My answer is that the US economy is weak and will not take a rate hike kindly. According to John Williams, “The broad economy is turning down anew, and that will likely be reflected in back to back headline contractions of first and second quarter 2015 GDP reporting.”
Forty five minutes before the close, the stock market is still locked in its trading range. Industrials are down 2.47 while Transports are up 51.03. The Nasdaq, still holding above its 5,000 support level, is up 15.28. Gold is down 2.5 to 1206.2 and silver is up 0.04 to 17.16.
My Advice Is To Buy Physical Silver
My advice is to buy physical silver, which is now priced below the cost of production, and above all, exercise patience. The precious metal trap is loaded and ready to snap." You can subscribe to Richard Russell's 90 years of wisdom and remarkable writings at Dow Theory Letters by CLICKING HERE TO SUBSCRIBE.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Bill Fleckenstein On Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver Oil And Frustration On The Markets – Plus A Bonus Q&A CLICK HERE.
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