As global markets head into what will surely be another wild trading week, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events, just issued a dire warning.
Egon von Greyerz: “Eric, I have been expecting 2016 to be a horrible year for the world and the dominos are now starting to fall all around us. The Baltic Dry Freight Index is now 98% below its 2007 high and 46% below the 2015 low. Trade is deteriorating everywhere and South Korea for example just came out with their figures for January which showed an 18.5% drop in January. For a country that is totally dependent on its exports this is a disaster. Trade deficits are now increasing in most countries…
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Egon von Greyerz continues: “The US is of course the best example of a country that totally mismanages its affairs. The US has had a trade deficit every single year since 1976. This means that the US has been living above its means for 40 years. In simple terms the US cannot afford to pay for its imports and must rely on debt and printed money to finance its extravagant consumption habits.
But that’s not all of course. What is even worse is the US budget deficit. The US has not had a real Budget Surplus since 1960! This is just incredible. The supposedly mightiest economy in the world has for well over half a century needed to borrow or print more money every year just to survive. Any company or individual who did this would have been bankrupt long ago and nobody would have lent them a penny. But the US has managed to hold on to the reserve currency status of the dollar and therefore continued to run deficits by just printing more money.
Legend Issues Dire Warning
As you know Eric, I have been expecting for some time that the dollar will run out of luck and start to reflect the fact that the US government is bankrupt. I believe that we have reached that point now. The most indebted nation in the world cannot continue to finance its malpractice by borrowing from the rest of the world. That is why we will see a major collapse of the dollar starting now and continuing until it has reached its intrinsic value of zero.
The dilemma is that most other nations have also lived above their means and therefore we will see a currency race to the bottom. Of the major currencies, the dollar is likely to win that race but there will be many smaller nations that are currently well ahead in this race down to the bottom. If I take Argentina as an example, gold is up 6,000% against the Peso since 1999. In a world of global currency debasement, Gold is the only proper yard stick as it is the only money which has survived for the last 5,000 years.
The US dollar is in a long term down trend against all currencies. Just look at the dollar against the Swiss Franc. Since 1970 the dollar has lost 77% of its value. I would expect the dollar to lose another 50% at least in the next few years against the Swissy. The graph below shows the not so mighty dollar.
A falling dollar will have major repercussions on investment markets and especially credit markets. As currencies fall, many countries will introduce exchange controls including the US. I would expect that to happen within 2-3 years at the most. For Americans, this would mean that they would be stuck in a collapsing currency. The next step would be forced investment into government bonds in order to finance escalating deficits.
Eric, I have stated that the Fed’s move in December to raise rates was a serious error of judgement and would soon be reversed. Well, the New York Fed’s Dudley declared a couple of days ago that the conditions had become considerably tighter since December and that a further rise in the dollar could have significant consequences. As I have said many times, the Fed hasn’t got a clue. They are like a dinosaur. If they are bitten in the tail, it takes them at least a few months before they react.
We knew that the dollar was ripe to start its fall and it seems that the Dudley statement is the catalyst for a major and permanent dollar reversal. We have already seen a three percent fall in the dollar index this week but that is of course just the very beginning. Also Carney, the Bank of England governor, changed his mind this week and indicated that rates are unlikely to rise until 2018. At least they are consistent in their ignorance, these central bankers.
As currencies and asset markets fall, the precious metals are now resuming the major uptrend to new highs. Gold is up 10% in 2016 and all stock markets have fallen against gold. The Dow, for example, is down 15% against gold since the beginning of the year. Investors still have an excellent opportunity to buy physical gold and some silver at prices that will never be seen again in my lifetime. The alternatives are extremely unpalatable – currency collapses, stock and bond market implosions and a disintegrating financial system. The choice has never been easier.”
***Felix Zulauf’s remarkable audio interview, where he tells listeners exactly how they can avoid wealth confiscation as well as how the global collapse will unfold, and much more, has now been released and you can access it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Felix Zulauf – The Ticking Time-Bomb That Threatens The World CLICK HERE.
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