Bullish sentiment in the gold market has collapsed. This has historically been a solid contrarian indicator.

US Dollar
October 12 (King World News) – Graddhy out of Sweden:  Managed to nail the three previous tops in the US Dollar, which can be seen  below.

USD will go down much much further big picture, but right here, USD is at an inflection point. 

If USD rolls over here, we could get one of my “everything but USD” up moves. 

If USD continues up here, we might get an “everything but USD” down move.

Next Fed FOMC meeting might actually mean something this time around.

There are other charts that indicate what we will get, but let´s see…

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Gold Bulls
Macro Charts:  Gold bulls — this is your moment…

KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Bullish Sentiment For Gold Has Collapsed. This Has Historically Been A Solid Contrarian Indicator!

Real Price Of Oil
Bull Theory:  THE REAL PRICE OF OIL IS MUCH HIGHER THAN YOU THINK.

Physical Brent crude surged above $154 per barrel, its highest level since records began in 1991.

The gap between physical oil prices and Brent futures has widened to a record $50+ per barrel.

Buyers are paying huge premiums to secure immediate oil supplies as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and tanker shortages continue.

This shows just how serious the global oil supply situation has become.

OIL MARKETS FACE GROWING SUPPLY RISKS AS MIDDLE EAST ATTACKS ESCALATE
Walter Bloomberg:  Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia are intensifying, threatening critical oil infrastructure and exports through the Red Sea.

Energy analysts warn that Yanbu and Jizan remain particularly vulnerable, potentially forcing Saudi Arabia to route more crude through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping risks are also rising.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Russian diesel deal may cover just 10% of the estimated global supply shortfall, offering limited relief from elevated fuel prices.

The proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is already under strain, with Kyiv reporting fresh Russian attacks and Moscow yet to confirm an agreement.

The outlook: Persistent supply disruptions, elevated diesel prices and continued upside risks for oil.

Oil Rush
Karel Mercx:  Almost nobody can afford to wait for oil right now.

That is why the cost of shipping 2 million barrels from West Africa to China jumped by several dollars again yesterday to $33 per barrel.

Look at the chart and compare this move with the shock in March and April.

Oil is on its way to $200.

The main reason is that global money supply still shows no real demand destruction, let alone a global recession.

Global money supply is basically all the money moving through the world economy. Look at 2022, when inflation and rising rates pushed it sharply lower.

There is an oil shortage. Oil prices will rise, inflation will rise, and interest rates will rise. As more money goes toward servicing and paying down debt, less money circulates through the economy, pushing global money supply lower.

If the Middle East escalates quickly, $200 could come very fast. The attack on Riyadh airport is worrying. But even if the conflict keeps dragging on, oil will still reach $200.

Russian Diesel Deal
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  As expected, Trump’s diesel deal with Putin has barely moved the needle, given the relatively small volumes involved. Both US ULSD and European gasoil cracks remain exceptionally elevated, highlighting the persistent shortage of refined products. While additional Russian supply may provide some marginal relief, it does little to offset the much larger disruption to Middle East exports and the loss of regional refining capacity. The widening divergence between diesel and gasoline cracks on both sides of the Atlantic underscores that the current supply crisis remains overwhelmingly concentrated in middle distillates, which include jet and maritime fuels, and heating oil.

UPDATE: Gold, Oil, Food
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  COT on #commodities: A broad rebound following two weeks of losses did little to change the selling bias among managed money accounts. According to the latest COT report, covering the week to 6 October, when the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 1.2%, these traders remained net sellers across several key markets, including crude oil, natural gas, gold, copper, corn and cotton. Buying was concentrated in fewer contracts, led by sugar and soybeans. 

Energy: The combined WTI and Brent crude oil net long was cut for a third consecutive week, falling by 23k contracts to a two-month low of 313k, while the natural gas net short jumped to a two-and-a-half-year high.

Metals: The COMEX gold net long fell to a three-month low of 115k contracts, highlighting the contrast between short-term momentum traders and longer-term investors, whose continued ETF accumulation has lifted holdings to a four-year high. In copper, long liquidation accelerated despite a modest weekly price gain, with funds cutting their net long by 22% to a three-month low of 64.5k contracts.

Agriculture: Corn longs continued to be reduced following last month’s record high, with a 60k-contract cut to a still elevated 317.4k occurring ahead of Friday’s bearish WASDE surprise, which triggered the biggest one-day slump since 2023. Elsewhere, a 10.5% surge in sugar futures drove a 13% increase in the net long to 257.4k contracts, just below its 2023 record.

Historic Opportunity In Silver Stocks
To listen to Tavi Costa discuss the huge opportunity in silver and gold mining stocks, energy, gold, silver and much more CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

JUST RELEASED!
To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss gold, silver, crude oil and much more CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

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