Today gold had a big upside breakout and the next target is the $2,035-$2,070 level then higher, plus look at what crashed to the lowest level in history.

Forced Selling
April 12 (King World News) – 
SentimenTrader:  28 years ago, a 15% drawdown in Treasury futures ushered in the collapse of Orange County, CA. 5 years after that, it helped prick the internet bubble. Someone is being carried out this time, too, because this has every hallmark of forced selling.

Someone Being Carried Out: Forced Selling Of Bonds

Top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick:  In early March, we articulated that the setup for Gold higher looked quite well due in part to equity market stress, geopolitical stress, unhinged inflation, and central banks being caught behind the curve. After breaking above a double bottom neckline at $1,917, Gold nearly tested the all-time high before retracing lower. Although price action retraced back downward, it failed to close back below $1,917 and since bounced higher…

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Currently, Gold is testing the neckline of a potential smaller double bottom at $1,966. A close above $1,966, (KWN note: Gold closed $1,975) if seen, could suggest a target around $2,035 with the potential to extend to $2,070-$2,075 (2022 high & all-time high respectively). If price action can close above all mentioned levels, it could suggest a test of the larger double bottom target between $2,140-$2,150.

Gold Just Closed $1,975 – Next Stop $2,035-$2,075

Is The Backbone Bending?
Top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick continues:  A phrase we often hear is that “Small Business is the backbone of the US Economy”.

“Small businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy: they create two-thirds of net new jobs and drive U.S. innovation and competitiveness. A new report shows that they account for 44 percent of U.S. economic activity.” — (US Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy-2019)

Small businesses also tend to be vey sensitive to interest rate changes with a lot of short-term borrowing and also Business Credit cards to finance a lot of start-ups. Inflation is also a big drag on small businesses. Unlike larger firms, small business balance sheets are not in nearly as good shape coming out of the pandemic, their credit quality is lower (higher credit risk), and their cash reserves tend to be very low.

As a consequence, the chart below is of some concern

This is the NFIB Small Business Outlook for General Business Conditions
This (Small Business Confidence) has just printed the lowest level in the history of this index going back to 1973.

NFIB Small Business Confidence Crashes
To Lowest Level In History!

This is particularly interesting as this level is significantly below that seen during the corrosive inflation period of the 1970’s into 1980 and also lower than that seen in 2012 following the great financial crisis.

During these periods that trend lows were hit (June 1980 and October 2012) unemployment was at 7.6% and 7.8% respectively, so it is notable and concerning that we should be seeing this number with unemployment at 3.6%

Small business indicators are also the “backbone” of our Techamental view of the World, so this number (albeit just one print) continues to remind us of the long-term cycle that saw significant downturns in 1972-1973- 17 years later in 1989-1991, 17 years later in 2006-2008 and 17 years later in 2023-2025?

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To listen to one of Gerald Celente’s greatest interviews ever discussing the BIS giving marching orders to central banks around the world to raise interest rates and end QE CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss Russia setting up the gold market for a massive short squeeze CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

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