On a day where the Dow was up over 300 points, closing above 21,000, top trends forecaster Gerald Celente has just released a new trend forecast for 2017.
GEOPOLITICAL ANXIETIES INCREASE
Here is a key portion of what top trends forecaster, Gerald Celente, had to say in the just-released Quarterly Trends Journal: More than just growing fears that President Trump and White House officials’ actions could ignite both trade and currency wars — and his loose-cannon behavior could provoke an event that would destabilize markets — geopolitical concerns are spreading through Europe, as are fears of a recurring Greek debt crisis…
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In France, for example, with riots increasing in Paris suburbs and discord growing against status-quo politicians and the entrenched system, Marine Le Pen’s anti-European Union, anti-euro National Front party’s odds of winning the presidential election continue to increase. Should she win and pull France out of the European Union, abandoning the euro, not only will it signal the demise of the EU and its currency, economic and geopolitical turmoil will ensue. If France exits and pays off its 2-trillion-euro debt with newly redenominated French francs, it will constitute, in effect, a default on the country’s debt.
In Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, strong eurosceptic, anti-immigration populist parties also continue to gain momentum, threatening the established economic and political European order.
Trend Forecast:
Rising US interest rates may push gold prices lower as the dollar strengthens. However, as a myriad of destabilizing geo-economic and geopolitical tensions increase, and considering the high levels of uncertainty with the Trump White House, we maintain our forecast of a $150 downside risk and a strong upside potential once gold solidly breaks $1,400 per ounce.
While gold outshines all the world’s currencies and commodities as the ultimate safe-haven asset in times of deep concern and high anxiety, in the absence of government interference and/or controls, we forecast increasing demand and strong price support for bitcoin as well.
On equity-market fronts and the American economy in particular, we and many others expect a sharp Trump rally market correction. But absent a wild-card event, be it political, economic or military, such as a terror strike, false flag or real, the US economy will moderately grow and the stock market will recover. Further, should Trump’s economic plans materialize as promoted, the Gross Domestic Product, which has tracked the worst post-recessionary growth since the end of World War II, will expand at a higher rate.
On the global front, as stated, Europe’s economic future is closely tied to upcoming elections, particularly in France. Absent a Le Pen victory there or other populist upsets in Germany, Netherlands and/or Italy that will threaten the euro and European Union’s future, the EU’s GDP will continue to slog along at current rates.
While China risks a growing debt bubble and currency pressures, considering positive recent import/export data, Beijing will continue monetary and fiscal measures to sustain steady economic growth.
And, despite risks of Middle East wars, an escalation of the Ukraine civil war and India still in flux following the massive currency recall last November, global economic growth, while moderate, will be stronger than in recent years.
Therefore, from Africa to South America and Russia to Australia, while risks persist, the prospects for economic and equity-market growth — at this time, in the absence of wildcard events — are much stronger than prospects for contraction.
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