Fort Knox is going to be audited as bullion “owners” who can’t get delivery begin to panic.
What’s happening in gold?
February 20 (King World News) – Alasdair Macleod: It has been a bit of a mystery why significant premiums on Comex’s gold contract arose, leading to large amounts of bullion leaving London and other centres for New York.
The common story has been that it’s a response to President Trump’s threat of tariffs. While it might be a factor, I don’t think it is the real reason. There are deeper problems involved. Here are some bullet points, which together go a long way to explaining the situation.
• Open interest in the gold contract fell about 70,000 while the price was rising. Clearly, this has been a bear squeeze on the establishment which has been forced to pay a premium to close their positions.
• Stand-for-deliveries on Comex have accelerated massively in the wake of Trump’s election as president. Last year, the total amounted to 491.2 tonnes: so far this year it amounts to 285.3 tonnes, an annualised rate of over four times that of last year. Bear in mind that stand-for-deliveries are not actual deliveries, with bullion banks extremely reluctant to actually deliver. Consequently, there is a pile-up of unsatisfied deliveries, with the new bullion “owners” who have not seen actual delivery beginning to panic.
• Scott Bessent has said he wants to set up a new sovereign wealth fund, putting all the Treasury’s gold into it. But everyone knows or thinks they know that much of it is missing. There is a fear that if Bessent’s plan goes ahead, the shortfall will be covered by confiscation. This is particularly concerning for foreigners who bought futures contracts on Comex’s Globex facility and have not had actual delivery.
• On several occasions, Trump has iterated a desire to devalue the dollar as part of his MAGA policy. This would send gold prices significantly higher. Again, he might sanction foreign owners of gold held in US vaults deemed to have benefited unfairly from this policy.
Lastly, actual bullion liquidity is tight, with large deliveries from refiners going directly to very big buyers mainly in Asia. The wider public, including investment managers, are underexposed while gold hits new highs. The chart below shows how it’s running away, with substantial buying interest beginning to overhang the market. It must be very scary for the shorts on Comex.
MAJOR GOLD PRICE PREDICTION 2025!
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