On the heels of the Federal Reserve revealing China dumped $76.9 billion of U.S. Treasuries, today one of the top economists in the world sent King World News an incredibly powerful piece warning that Western central planners are about to unleash economic hell on Earth. Below is the fantastic piece from Michael Pento.
By Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies
February 20 (King World News) – We are fast approaching the time when it will become obvious that mortally-wounded economies cannot be resuscitated by a massive increase in credit from central banks. Nations that suffer from tremendous capital imbalances, debt capacities, and asset bubbles cannot be healed by printing money.
Dire Consequences
Quantitative easing and zero interest rates provide GDP growth that is merely illusory. They can temporarily levitate equity, real estate, and bond prices, which causes an artificial boom in employment and consumption. But making money free has its limits, and it also comes with dire consequences.
Further, hope in economic growth generated from central banks is quickly fading because the transmission mechanism is broken. Central banks can print money, but if new assets aren’t purchased by private banks, there is less of an increase in broader money supply growth. Now that most central banks have put borrowing costs at rock-bottom levels there isn’t much room to go lower. It is becoming clear that governments are really good at creating asset bubbles but woefully inadequate at creating sustainable growth.
China Slowing Down
For example, the Bank of Japan was fairly successful at creating inflation (YOY CPI up 2.4%), but after more than two years of Abenomics and its attack on the yen, GDP is lower today than in 2012. The growth dynamic isn’t much different in China, where GDP growth in 2010 was 5% higher than it is today, according to official government numbers, as the People's Bank of China tries to slowly let the air out of an overwhelming fixed asset bubble.
Super Mario Draghi To The Rescue?
But now all hopes for central banks to save the world rests on Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank. Two years after promising to do “whatever it takes” to bring down skyrocketing bond yields, the ECB will officially start buying bonds in March. The problem is that Draghi’s well-telegraphed move has served only to allow private banks to front-run his bid. So sovereign bond yields are already near zero and any artificial benefit derived from lower borrowing costs has already been accounted for.
And now these banks, which are saturated with EU debt, are now just waiting until March to say to Mr. Draghi, “Sold to you.” But these same banks won’t be in any rush to make new loans with the ECB’s credit or buy additional sovereign debt because the assets in question offer little profit potential.
The United States has been basking in the afterglow of the Fed’s ability to temporarily re-inflate home prices and the pockets of Wall Street bankers. But sorry to say, once again growth on Main Street appears to be chronically illusive. U.S. Q4 2014 GDP growth was less than half of what it was in the prior quarter. And so much for all the drivel about finally achieving “escape velocity” last year. The 2.4% GDP growth for all of 2014 was still less than the 2.5% growth seen during 2010 — the first year out of the Great Recession.
Once Free Markets Have Been Destroyed
Central banks have destroyed any vestiges of the free market with the primary goal of creating inflation. But with the growth benefits derived from free money (if any) now in the rear-view mirror, what do we have to look forward to? Investors have the pleasure of witnessing the massive reversal of bond yields, as the failure of central banks and governments to create real GDP growth is realized. For instance, the Japanese 10-year note yield has rallied to 0.46%, from the low of just 0.2% on January 19 this year. And yields have begun to rise in Europe and the U.S. as well.
Global Debt Has Skyrocketed $60 Trillion
The turnaround in global sovereign bond yields is not due to a rise in inflation, nor is it because of an increase in growth. Rather, it is because QE's efficacy has run its course. Therefore, we are left with sovereign yields that must now discount the inflation risk represented by the tremendous increase of central bank balance sheets, along with the massive increase in IOUs piled up since the Great Recession ended.
Most importantly, without the manifestation of this growth promised by central bank money printing, there just isn’t any way for nations to maintain the illusion of solvency. Indeed, since the start of the financial crisis at the end of 2007, total global debt has risen by nearly $60 trillion, which is 286% of GDP, up from 269% seven years ago.
Another 2008-Style Global Collapse?
As confidence in central banks to save the world fades, interest rates have started to rise. Rising interest rates is Quantitative Easing in reverse. The increasing debt service payments combined with crumbling asset bubbles will cause spurious global GDP to collapse.
On top of this, the Federal Reserve is threatening to raise interest rates into an environment of slowing GDP growth around the world. With the total market cap of U.S. stocks at an incredible 124% of GDP and a worldwide historic bubble in government debt, investors need to get ready to relive the Great Recession all over again. ***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Mainstream Media Lying To The Public As The World Faces Most Dangerous Crisis In History CLICK HERE.
To learn more about Michael Pento’s financial management services CLICK HERE. You can also sign up for Michael Pento's weekly podcast at his website.
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The audio interviews with Michael Pento, Gerald Celente, David Stockman, Marc Faber, Eric Sprott, Felix Zulauf, Andrew Maguire, John Mauldin, Egon von Greyerz, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Lord Christopher Monckton, Bill Fleckenstein, Dr. Philippa Malmgren, Stephen Leeb, John Embry, Rick Rule, and Rick Santelli are available now. Other recent KWN interviews include Jim Grant — to listen CLICK HERE.
