Are gold and gold miners seeing a major bottom?

Gold
October 28 (King World News) – Fred Hickey:  As usual, the Chinese are doing their part: opportunistically buying when the West (mostly speculators currently) are dumping gold. Gold options and futures expirations today and tomorrow (always a tricky period for gold) and FOMC meeting tomorrow as well. We should have a better idea about whether we’ve already seen the gold bottom (a successful retest – which is my suspicion) over the next few days…

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Gold
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  Holding the line: Gold trades higher, near USD 4,050 ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, having rebounded from key technical support around USD 3,970. The tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, with bulls taking some comfort from the latest recovery and the market’s ability to defend this important level.

However, in my view, a sustained break above USD 4,230 is needed to improve the technical outlook and trigger short covering, potentially attracting renewed demand from leveraged funds that have been net sellers for several weeks. Until then, the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, particularly if the Fed delivers a more hawkish message than expected.

Beyond the immediate Fed reaction, the direction of US real yields and the dollar will remain important drivers, while underlying demand from longer-term investors continues to provide a counterweight to speculative selling. For now, USD 3,970 and USD 4,230 define the key levels to watch for the next directional move.

Gold
Tom McClellan:  The dollar price of gold is down to that trend line which Ole Hansen has highlighted. But gold priced in euros is not yet there. So what do you do if the dollar price breaks the line, but the euro price does not? And interestingly, the yen price has already broken that line. Note that this is a philosophical question, and I do not have a great answer.

This is a big problem with doing TA on gold prices. Which currency’s chart does one use? The same problem exists for charts of oil prices, or really, any global commodity. And the problem operates not just on sloping trend lines but also on static price levels. A prior high or low could “break” as support on one currency, but not on another. What does one do? (Again, a philosophical question.)

Gold Miners
Otavio Costa:  A reminder:

If gold miners were a single sector, they would have the cleanest balance sheets, the strongest profit margins, and the most attractive valuations in the market today.

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