Look at who just said the “worst is behind us” in the gold market, plus a look at silver and oil.

Silver
October 27 (King World News) – Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank:  Silver continues to trade on a softer footing, hovering near an 11-month low, while gold’s ability to hold around USD 4,000 has pushed the gold-silver (XAUXAG) ratio higher towards 74.50. A sustained break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 74.66 could signal further relative weakness in silver, potentially opening the door to 82.30, the 61.8% retracement of the 2025–26 decline.

KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: The Gold/Silver Ratio Has Surged All The Way To 74.66 From A Recent Low Of 42.18 As The Price Of Silver Has Underperformed Gold.

In a more pronounced downside scenario, a continued rise in the ratio towards the high 90s would imply silver trading in the low USD 40s, assuming gold remains near USD 4,000. While such an outcome is not our base case, silver has clearly lost some of its earlier momentum, with concerns about economic growth and fading speculative appetite weighing on sentiment. Silver’s tendency to amplify gold’s moves has also become a headwind as momentum-driven buying subsides.

As with gold, much of the recent selling appears to have been driven by momentum-focused hedge funds, reflected in a decline in the managed money net long to a 32-month low of just 3,746 contracts. In contrast, ETF demand has remained relatively resilient, with holdings rising to 25.1k tonnes, a seven-month high, from a July low of 24.3k tonnes. This divergence suggests that while speculative positioning has weakened considerably, longer-term investor interest remains intact.

For now, the key technical level to watch is 74.66 on the ratio, with a sustained break potentially pointing to further silver underperformance. Conversely, a rejection at this level could provide some near-term relief, with initial support around 72. Ultimately, gold remains the main source of directional guidance, while a sustained recovery in silver will likely depend on renewed momentum across the broader precious metals complex…

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GOLD: “Worst Is Behind Us”
Tracy Shuchart:  Amundi Says ‘Worst Is Behind Us’ as Gold Flirts With $4,000

Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, expects a recovery in the gold price to around $4,500 an ounce following a selloff that dragged the metal to a three-month low.

“The worst is behind us,” said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at the Amundi Investment Institute. Traders’ positions are light following last week’s retreat, he added, which is “in favor of a rebound in the next weeks.” (Bloomberg)

Big Oil
Jack Prandelli:  Big Oil has the cash. 

It’s running short of barrels.

Energy is 6.8% of the S&P 500 and makes 11.7% of its free cash flow.

5 of the 9 biggest oil companies still didn’t replace what they pumped in 2025.

Energy Analytics put them side by side on two numbers. 

Reserve replacement is new proved reserves against what was produced. 

Reserve life is years left at today’s output.

The ones that refilled the tank:

Petrobras 175%, 13 years

Eni 159%, 11 years

Chevron 158%, 8 years

TotalEnergies 116%, 12 years

The ones that didn’t:

bp 93%, 7 years

ConocoPhillips 80%, 9 years

ExxonMobil 64%, 11 years

Equinor 48%, 7 years

Shell −41%, 8 years

This year the money came back in size.

The majors have cut $ 50bn of debt since March.

The sector trades at 13.5x earnings… Tech trades at 19x.

Reserve life is the number I watch. 

Below 10 years, a company has to drill harder or buy someone else’s barrels.

With cash flow this strong, this could be the window to put money back into the ground.

The risk is that boards hand it all back in buybacks while the reserve gap keeps growing.

Some are already spending.

I wrote about where the cash goes next in my latest article, Tech Made You Rich. Can Oil Keep You Rich?

When Will People Finally Realize Energy Is In A Bull Market?
David Bird:  At what point will people finally realise that energy is in a bull market?

This is what we call the disbelief stage of a bull market. It’s exactly what I saw with silver in early 2025.

Everyone thinks energy is only rising because of the war. They’re scared to invest because they believe that once the war ends, energy prices will collapse and the sector will return to a bear market.

But here’s what they’re missing.

Energy was already showing extremely bullish signs long before the war even started.

The war didn’t create the underlying bullish market structure. It simply gave people a reason to explain the move.

That’s the beauty of studying long-term market cycles. While everyone else is focused on today’s headlines, the charts can be telling a completely different story.

Bull markets often begin when most people still don’t believe they’re real.

The Mother Of All Crises!
To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss the mother of all crises as well as what to expect next from gold, silver, oil and more CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

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