Gold broke below $4,000 as the price of oil continues to surge.

Gold
October 23 (King World News) – The Kobeissi Letter:  BREAKING: Spot gold falls below $4,000/oz for the first time since July 29th as US-Iran tensions escalate.

This puts gold prices down -15% from their August 25th high.

UBS Weighs In On $4,000 Gold
Walter Bloomberg:  UBS SEES $4,000 AS KEY SUPPORT FOR GOLD

UBS expects gold could retest $4,000/oz, but sees strong dip-buying demand establishing a floor.

Despite rising U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar, central bank buying, Chinese demand and debt concerns continue to support prices.

UBS forecasts 750–1,000 metric tons of annual central bank purchases….

Listen to the greatest Egon von Greyerz audio interview ever
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US Dollar
Otavio Costa:  The muted response of the dollar was arguably the most important thing today.

So much for the idea that every selloff sends investors rushing into the US dollar because liquidity becomes king.

Treasuries aside, the dollar would normally have caught a strong bid during a selloff like this.

Instead, against several currencies, it went the other way.

Yes… it’s only one day…. but it deserves attention.

Crude Oil
The Kobeissi Letter:  BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $117/barrel for the first time since March 19th amid fears that the US will renew strikes on Iran.

Brent crude oil is now $2 away from breaking above its high of the year.

Inflation expectations are pushing higher.

Global Air Travel
Lukas Ekwueme:  Global air travel remains near record highs despite the massive disruptions caused by the Iran war…

COVID showed us what real oil demand destruction looks like… 

We’re not seeing anything remotely similar today.

Global Oil Crisis Forcing Emergency Measures
Lukas Ekwueme:  The global oil crisis is forcing governments around the world to take emergency measures to conserve energy…

According to the IEA, 60 countries and regions have introduced measures ranging from fuel rationing to shorter workweeks, travel restrictions and limits on energy consumption.

These countries represent 44% of the global population.

Meanwhile, global air travel, a good proxy for oil demand, remains near record highs…

We are currently losing ~10 mb/d of oil production… Unless we go into full lockdown, we won’t close that gap through demand destruction alone.

Oil demand destruction during previous crises:

– COVID (2020): ~9 mb/d

– GFC (2008–2009): ~1.7 mb/d

A severe crisis will hit the world if Hormuz doesn’t reopen in the coming months.

But given that Iran is demanding that the US surrender to its terms before reopening Hormuz… This crisis could be the catalyst that forces Washington to cave in.

Winter is coming, my friends…

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