As we kickoff trading, this worry is hanging over global markets.
On This Day…
November 21 (King World News) – Art Cashin: On this day in 1620, as we all recall from sixth grade, the Pilgrim Fathers…thankful for having safely reached their destination…and to assure no limits on their new-found freedom…gathered aboard the Mayflower to draft and sign – The Mayflower Compact. And you probably remember your version of Sister Anesthesia telling you that was the beginning of democracy in America. Well maybe you recall it that way because you were spending too much time trying to figure out why Mary Agnes Doyle was starting to look different than she did in fifth grade. We’re sure the good Sister told you the real story. (No….not about Mary Agnes!) Sister certainly related how the Pilgrims in fact were nowhere near their destination. (Records indicate they were destined for “Northern Virginia” which according to sea charts probably was somewhere between present day Perth Amboy, N.J. and Bayonne. If they had found their original spot….today we might speak of the thrifty reverent Pilgrims of Wall Street. They only pulled in at Massachusetts because they had run low on beer (or as they wrote in the log “beere”….oops….you heard that already).
That brings us back to the “Mayflower Compact.” It seems that a significant portion of folks on the Mayflower were “strangers” – not members of the Pilgrim sect but folks who signed on in hope of land and success in the new world. They had all signed agreements to abide by the Pilgrim Fathers in this new colony of the “Virginia Company.” So, when the Pilgrim Fathers suggested putting a party ashore, “the strangers”, out of beer and noting a distinct chill in the air remarked that since this place was outside the Virginia Company Grant – once ashore they were free to do as they pleased. (Now lest ye think these “strangers” a rowdy group – Verily – I point out thou mayest have heard of a few – mayhap one Miles Standish or a certain carpenter, John Alden.) So – to keep these “strangers” from demanding freedom once they went ashore, the Pilgrims devised the Mayflower Compact – which after a quick headcount went for “majority rule.” Its purpose clearly was to set a range limit on freedom of choice.
The Pilgrims spent the next 30 days, foraging, shooting crows, scaring Native Americans and their dogs (Canis Americus) and finding no beer. Finally, they landed around Plymouth and might have all died in a few months until they bumped into an Indian, named Squanto, who mysteriously spoke English (with a Portuguese accent no less) but that’s a story for another day.
To mark the day, drop anchor at a place called Rocky’s and have a “Mull Wine” or “clove laced hot cider.” But remember what the Cheshire Cat told Alice – “If you don’t know where you want to get to….it doesn’t matter which way you go.”
The stock market had a little trouble with its sense of direction on Wednesday.
Stocks opened slightly lower after the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a bill supporting the Hong Kong demonstrators on Tuesday night. Traders feared that the bill’s passage could cause problems in the negotiations for a trade deal.
The potential cloud over the trade talks could be seen in global markets. Shares in Asia and Europe were all trading lower.
The fact that there was a cloud over the trade talks rather than the outright collapse in the talks was evident in that the selling was only moderate and on lighter than normal volume. That changed shortly before 1:00 when Reuters ran a headline saying that a phase one trade deal might not be signed this year.
Traders worried that such delay would bring up the December 15th deadline for further tariffs. Higher tariffs could blow up the whole deal. In response, stocks gaped sharply lower.
The bulls managed to circle the wagons by about 1:15 and the “buy the dip” crowd seemed to move in. Slowly but steadily stocks began to inch higher and by 3:00, the Dow had but its selloff losses in half.
The release of the Fed minutes drew some media attention but they seemed to offer no new information and the equity markets just shrugged.
The action suggested that the market still has some hope that a trade deal is still possible.
Once again, declines edged out advances. Traders will continue to monitor this to see if it’s a sign of internal deterioration.
Overnight And Overseas – Concerns about the status of trade talks seems to be hanging over equity markets globally. Japan, Shanghai and India all closed modestly lower. Hong Kong got dinged the equivalent of 430 Dow points.
London is lower as Johnson apparently stumbled a bit in an election speech last night. Stocks in Paris and Frankfurt are modestly lower.
Among other assets, Bitcoin has slipped below $8000 and is currently churning around $7900. Gold and crude are a shade lower, with WTI trading just below $57. The euro is a bit firmer against the dollar, while yields are a tick higher.
Consensus – China’s chief trade negotiator is said to have invited his U.S. counterparts to come to talks as early as next week.
Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.
Gold Bull Catalyst
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***KWN has released Gerald Celente’s powerful audio interview discussing what investors should do to prepare themselves for the coming depression, including what to expect from gold, and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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