Today one of the greats in the business covers everything from Brexit to what is happening in the global markets.
A portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: The Brexit Vote – Odds And Ends – While there will be no formal “exit polls” in Britain, it is widely rumored that several large hedge funds have individually hired their own exit polling teams. Traders will watch late in today’s U.S. session to see if anyone looks to be placing “informed” bets.
The Weather – Some think that rains and stormy weather would favor the exit vote since they are viewed to be the far more motivated team. This morning the weather is said to be rather ugly with a series of powerful thunderstorms, causing flash floods in London and Southern England. The flooding has closed several roads and rail lines as well as a few polling stations.
Polls Versus Bookies – Most polls show a tight race with a slight edge to the exit vote. The bookies say nearly 70% of the money bet has been bet on the “remain” side. Yet, normally reliable sources say more individual bets are on exit, while the large monetary bets are on remain.
The Russell Rebalance – At Friday’s close, the Russell 1000 and the Russell 2000 will be rebalanced (“re- constituted” is the word they prefer). This happens once a year and the action is usually widespread enough that the Russell Day is frequently the highest volume day of the year.
On June 17th, the Russell organization published the list of the changes. Usually, various traders will buy or sell short different shares to prepare to be the opposite side of what is expected to be stocks to buy or sell on Friday’s close. Over the years, so many firms and traders have participated in this anticipatory arbitrage that they not only offset the closing imbalance, they often outweigh it.
This year, however, things might be different. This year fear of sharp volatility around the Brexit vote may have inhibited some traders from taking on a position in front of a massive flip of the coin risk. If that is so this could be the least liquid and most volatile Russell in years.
Overnight And Overseas – Asian markets were mostly higher. Hong Kong, Tokyo and India all show plus ticks with Shanghai finishing mildly lower.
Over in Europe, the mood is positively celebratory. Most equity markets are up about the equivalent of 330 points in the Dow. Perversely, volume is said to be 30% below normal.
The pound is at fresh highs for the year. The buying in stocks and currencies is forceful enough to convince some that the assumed private exit pollers see a clear “remain” victory.
In other assets, gold is down while crude moves higher. The euro rallies smartly against the greenback.
Consensus – With crude and Europe up, the bulls are clearly in charge for the opening. A negative would not just be an exit win but a narrow win for “remain”. That would leave the issue festering and could have it resurface in a couple of months. We’ll wait and see if tomorrow brings follow on or a “sell the news” event. A huge Russell reweight will add to the challenge. First resistance is S&P 2099/2105. Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.
***KWN has just released an extraordinary audio interview with Egon von Greyerz discussing new information about the endgame, the gold and silver markets, and much more, and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***Also just released: Shocking Interview From A Legend On Brexit And The Global Chaos That Is Coming CLICK HERE.
***Andrew Maguire’s remarkable KWN audio interview has now been released, and you can access it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.