Oil has reversed back above $103 as transportation prices have skyrocketed.
Oil Reverses Higher
April 9 (King World News) – The Kobeissi Letter: Absolutely incredible:
US oil prices are now nearing $103/barrel and have been rising at a pace of $1/hour since 6 AM ET.
This puts oil prices +12% above the low seen just ~24 hours ago as ceasefire doubts have grown.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister announced that Iran was “on the verge” of responding to “ceasefire violations” last night, but Pakistan intervened.
Iran is also not allowing more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, or just ~10% of pre-war levels.
This is in sharp contrast to President Trump’s claims that Iran would implement a “complete and immediate” opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Triple digit oil prices are back in full-swing…
Listen to the greatest Egon von Greyerz audio interview ever
by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
Transportation Prices Have Skyrocketed
Peter Boockvar: I’ll start with transportation today after going through the March Logistics Managers’ Index that came out Tuesday because I want to highlight the pricing situation and something I’ve touched upon after going through the trucking earnings calls over the last few months. Also, talk about inventories. Pricing continues to firm up because of the growing implications of excess capacity leaving the market. “Transportation prices skyrocketed (+12.7) in March to 89.4, which is the highest level since March 2022” when it got to 89.7.
“Much like the spike four years ago, the rapid increase this month is at least partially attributable to the start of an armed conflict with Iran – and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz – has taken approximately 20% of oil off the board in 2026. In 2022, this caused significant supply driven inflation which slowed consumer demand and ultimately led to a long lasting freight recession.”
“While there are some clear similarities in the logistics situations in 2026 and 2022, there are some differences as well…The biggest difference between now and four years ago is the inventory situation. Inventory levels were expanding quickly at 75.7 in early 2022, standing in contrast to 2026’s leaner, faster turning inventory levels which are expanding only marginally at 54.8…With the current leanness of inventories, firms will not have large stores of goods and components to draw on, which may necessitate some continued movement in freight. The leanness extends to fleet sizes as well, which have right sized considerably since 2022, meaning there will be less excess capacity this time around.” I bolded for emphasis.
We know the spike in diesel prices are a major factor here too. And on the pass through of the diesel price spike, “For the first time in its history the USPS announced a temporary price increase – with prices up by 8% – to cover increased fuel costs. These increases have spread to private carriers as well, with FedEx and UPS increasing their ground transportation prices by 26.5% and 27% respectively.”
I’ll add this thought, with leaner inventories, there maybe isn’t enough cushion if Strait closure induced supply chain shortages start to pick up in the US.
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