Today Michael Oliver, the man who is well known for his deadly accurate forecasts on stocks, bonds, and major markets, shared with King World News the fact that silver is now very close to a major upside breakout.
October 26 (King World News) – Michael Oliver, founder of MSA Research: Silver accomplished what gold has yet to do. Namely, clear monthly momentum resistance at the 3-mo. avg./zero line. Silver did that early in the month, then retreated along with gold, and has now reasserted itself above that level. We’re still waiting for mama gold to echo what silver has done. For gold we want a weekly close over its 3-mo. avg. (i.e., over $1722.80 this month or somewhere above about $1696 next month—gold’s new 3-mo. avg. to be finalized once this month closes). Once we see that, our confidence level will rise even more that an upturn is underway.
But now it’s clear even on price that silver has been “trending” sideways since late June—that the net decline has ended with buyers balancing panicked sellers. The current price is about squarely in the middle of that ink. Momentum argues that it’s likely price will soon offer more pluses…
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Silver: long-term momentum
100 weeks is comparable to a 2-yr. avg. oscillator.
There has been a layered and aged decline.
The most recent range of momentum action goes back to May. Close any week 10% below the gradually declining 100-wk. avg./zero line (the red horizontal defines that structure) and that range will be broken out 10/21/2022 above. Next week $21.25 will accomplish that. The 100-wk. avg. is declining by around .04 per week. Such a close will also amply clear the downtrend plotted through peak weekly closes going back to summer 2020.
On almost any long-term momentum chart we can run on silver, if we go momentum -2 back to the summer 2020 high readings we can identify three waves of decline. Those are also apparent on this 100-wk. momentum chart.on this 100-wk. momentum chart. Our experience is that three waves is usually all you get.
Therefore, a breakout upside now that terminates the third wave should be seen as very positive for long-term momentum.
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