Look at what is skyrocketing now, plus a look at mining stocks, massive year-over-year price changes and a calamitous situation.
A Calamitous Situation
August 31 (King World News) – Luke Gromen: A recession with US debt/GDP at 125% and deficits at 6%/GDP will absolutely, 100% be calamitous…
Billionaire and mining legend Ross Beaty, Chairman of Pan American Silver, just spoke about what he expects to see in the gold and silver markets and also shared one of his top stock picks in the mining sector CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO HEAR BEATY’S INTERVIEW.
Graddhy out of Sweden: This ratio chart is showing a very interesting, six weeks long, blue support line backtest. If this backtest holds, it means that precious metal miners are turning here vs general equities going forward.
MAJOR REVERSAL FOR MINERS?
Mining Stocks Turning vs General Equities
More “Transitory” Inflation
Holger Zschaepitz: To put things into perspective: Supermarket prices in Germany are rising at a record pace. Food CPI jumped 16.6% YoY in August, the highest food price inflation since the start of the statistic.
German Food Inflation Skyrocketing
Massive Year-Over-Year Price Changes
Charlie Bilello: Commodity price changes over the last year…
Natural Gas: +122%
Heating Oil: +85%
Brent Crude +46%
WTI Crude: +44%
US CPI: +8.5%
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Peter Boockvar: While still rising robustly, the rate of change for home price increases slowed to an 18% pace in June according to S&P CoreLogic.
Home Prices Still 18% Higher Than Last Year
They are up an astonishing 40% over the past two years and these are not meme stocks. Home prices in Tampa and Miami still saw 30%+ y/o/y home price gains, followed by Dallas, Phoenix, Charlotte and Las Vegas all above 25%. We know these are the places where many are moving to. Where they are leaving from? Home price gains were slowest in Minneapolis, DC (transient place because of the political turnover), Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit and NY.
Bottom line, the home price gains over the past two years are alarming for those that have been in the market to buy, especially the first time buyer that is not playing with ‘house’ money. Again, this was mostly stoked by artificially suppressed mortgage rates that was between 2.85%-3.5% from March 2020 to January 2022. Of course throw in covid and limited supply of existing homes and for a period of time up until now, the limited supply of new ones because of the spike in lumber, copper, PVC, etc… and shortages of so many materials and labor. The combination is what’s called inflation and unfortunately for the most expensive item for almost all consumers.
So, it is a really good thing that home prices are cooling so as to give the first time buyer at least a chance because while the cost of renting is moderating too, it still is up substantially over the past few years. I expect home price growth to slow substantially from here.
10 Job Openings For What Is Really Just One Job
Job openings in July totaled 11.2mm and June was revised up by about 300k to 11mm. This is now the 8th month in a row of 11mm job openings. The fly here is that hiring’s fell for a 5th month and the hiring rate was unchanged at 4.2% which matches the slowest since January 2021. The number of quitters fell for a 4th month and the quit rate fell to 2.7%, the lowest since May 2021. We know we have a bizarre labor market where some sectors are limiting hiring and/or shedding jobs while airlines and restaurants can’t find enough people. Also, some of those skilled tech workers that are losing jobs are quickly finding another elsewhere.
Bottom line, the number of job openings definitely surprised to the upside just as we’re all looking to see where the labor weakness is now developing. It is developing as seen even here with the June and July opening prints the lowest since November and the hiring and quit rates moderating and what we’ve seen with jobless claims and the BLS household survey. Also keep in mind, and I have no idea how to quantify this, there is a debate as to what extent job openings are overstated in this new work from home environment we’re in. That is because if I’m looking for a programmer that can work from home, I’ll put an ad out there in San Francisco, LA, NY, Miami, Dallas, Scottsdale, Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle, Vail even, etc… That would be 10 ‘job openings’ for really what is just one job.
ALSO JUST RELEASED: Time For Gold’s Daily Cycle Low, So Much Negative Sentiment, Apartment Rents And Cooling Off CLICK HERE.
ALSO JUST RELEASED: MUST SEE: Stunning Look At Today’s Housing Bubble vs Previous Bubble CLICK HERE.
ALSO JUST RELEASED: Demand For Hard Assets Remains Strong, Plus Central Banks Hawkish With Alarming Energy Price Spikes CLICK HERE.
ALSO JUST RELEASED: Greyerz – The US Economy Is Crashing But The Global Collapse Will Be Even More Terrifying CLICK HERE.
UPDATE: Gold, Silver, Energy Crisis And Much More
Michael Oliver discusses the accelerating global crisis as well as what to expect in the gold and silver markets and other major markets and you can listen to his powerful audio interview by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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