The rally in the gold market is continuing as tariffs begin to impact global economies.
SPECIAL: Gold, Silver Miners – Michael Oliver’s audio has now been released discussing historic breakouts unfolding and what to expect next (LINK BELOW)! For now…
April 1 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: I’ll say again, the political world is really upside down when you have Democrats blasting tariffs which are taxes and you have Republicans embracing them. I’ll give another Grateful Dead quote, “The sky was yellow and the sun was blue” from Scarlet Begonias. I know it is more nuanced than that with the possibility that foreigners would pay more of the tariff/tax via product discounts and/or US dollar strength but you get my point.
Tariffs Impacting Travel
I am very sympathetic to the reciprocity angle to even out and hopefully lower global tariffs in the aggregate with other countries and I want to see more US manufacturing jobs too but the former is seemingly easier to figure out than the latter in terms of both negotiation and clear results. The latter is a ‘fingers crossed’ that it works with any results only years in the future. Otherwise, using tariffs mostly just to raise revenue and believing that it will lower the US budget deficit relative to GDP, there is one lesson we should all have learned over MANY decades and that is regardless of tax rates, both high and low, tax revenue as a percent of GDP has averaged about 17%.
It is spending where our finances have gone off the rails and where it currently sits at about 24% vs a long term average closer to 20%. Finally, we’ve likely only seen the beginning of retaliatory tariffs on us if what we see tomorrow is more than just reciprocity. EC President Ursula von der Leyen said today, “We do not necessarily want to retaliate” but, “If necessary we have a strong plan to retaliate and will use it.”
Either way, may tomorrow bring whatever tariffs we will see so companies and households can all adjust.
On the global travel side, the impact of tariffs is already here. Air Canada had its annual meeting yesterday and Bloomberg News is reporting that the airline is seeing “a 10% decline in bookings for transborder flights between Canada and the US for the April to September period compared to last year.” “Am I concerned?,” Chairman Vagn Sorensen said in a response to a question from a shareholder during Monday’s meeting. “Yes, definitely, I’m concerned.”
The CEO of Accor, the big European based hotel company with a variety of brands across the price spectrum like Fairmont, Delano, Mondrian, Novotel, Raffles, Sofitel, SLS and Swisshol, was on Bloomberg TV today and said vacationers are “deciding to change destination, to go to Canada instead of going to America, to go to South America or Egypt.” He said bookings from Europe to the US are down 25% this summer.
While we have a large trade deficit in goods, we have a large surplus when it comes to services, particularly travel.
Here is a quick credit check, the LSTA leveraged loan index closed yesterday at the lowest since mid August 2024. I watch this index each day and is reflecting both expectations of more Fed rate cuts where this is floating rate debt and the credit quality of credits would be considered ‘junk.’
Gold Miners Strong As Stock Market Selloff Continues
Graddhy out of Sweden: Did you notice that the precious metal miners did not follow the stock market down from its mid Feb top this time around?
I will repeat that: Miners did NOT follow the general markets into its weekly cycle decline. Instead, precious metal miners went the opposite way and put in a big up-move from there.
And, this made the GDX vs SPX ratio chart below breakout. Means gold miners will outperform the stock market from now on.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: GDX Gold Mining Index Set To Dramatically Outperform S&P 500
This chart above was also one of many charts that helped us catch the latest big low for PM miners.
Also, noted 3 weeks ago that the GOLD vs SPX ratio is now making a higher high after a huge purple breakout. Means the breakout I posted on 2 years ago for this ratio is now confirmed.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Gold Miners Surging As Stock Market Tumbles
Been saying for years that capital is now rotating into commodities. The capital rotation turn is not coming, it is already here. Been sharing many historical ratio chart turns and breakouts in real-time. The big ratio chart turns for precious metals happened long ago, they are not coming; see previous posts.
Always remember that most have to be at the wrong end of sentiment at major turns, breakouts and levels. Always. Including all analysts, “experts” and services. Think about what that means for how you spend your time seeking info, and for who you follow.
Fortunes Will Be Made In 2025 As Gold Enters Upside Acceleration Phase!
To find out what asset Michael Oliver says will make investors fortunes in 2025 CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
Alasdair Macleod’s audio interview was just released discussing the upside action in gold, silver and the mining stocks and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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