With crude oil falling and the U.S. 30-Year Treasuries spiking, today King World News is featuring a piece from one of the greats in the business that says gold and gold mining shares are now acting like the Chinese stock market prior to its 100% surge!
"Nature's first green is gold. Her hardest hue to hold. Her early leaf's a flower; But only so an hour. Then leaf subsides to leaf. So Eden sank to grief. So dawn goes down to day. Nothing gold can stay." …Robert Frost, "Nothing Gold Can Stay"
May 15 (King World News) Andrew Adams (Raymond James) – "While I don't claim to be an expert on poetry, I am fairly certain Robert Frost was not making an observation on the valuation of gold prices when he penned "Nothing Gold Can Stay" in 1923. Instead, the poem is frequently used in our culture to exemplify that everything has its end and nothing lasts forever (one could also use Guns N' Roses' 1991 hit "November Rain" to typify the same point, but that doesn't fit as well with the theme of this commentary).
Gold Rose A Staggering 700% By 2011
Frost's poignant verse did, however, aptly apply to the almost eleven year bull market in gold from 2001 to 2011 that saw the precious metal climb close to 700% before burning out at its terminal destination. Since then, the gold bugs have not had much to cheer about, as prices have trended steadily downward with little attempt at a sustained rally. But just as the once-vibrant bull market eventually met its maker, this multi-year dip will ultimately conclude as well, and I am finally seeing some signs that make me believe it may be time to take a shot at picking the bottom.
I actually came into this year believing the gold miners would outperform the overall stock market for a variety of reasons, and, so far, that has turned out to be a decent, though not mind-blowing, call. However, the pattern I am seeing now in the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ/$26.51) has me even more excited for the group and leads me to think there might be even more upside in the months to come.
Gold Mining Index Acting Like Chinese Stock Market Prior To 100% Surge
Looking at the weekly chart, GDXJ has broken above a long-term trendline that had held prices in check since late 2010, and since pulling back to that line a few weeks ago, the fund has rallied to make what appears to me to be a bottoming formation, with higher lows and highs. It may just be the best long-term pattern I have seen since last summer's breakout in the Shanghai Index, a breakout that has since translated into more than a 100% gain in Shanghai's stock market.
Of course, I am not saying the same thing will happen here with the miners, but I do believe that long-term breakouts like this should be respected, and if you are comfortable with holding this highly volatile fund, I do believe the risk/reward set-up looks favorable here.
And speaking once more to the theme of everything eventually coming to an end, we perhaps witnessed the long-overdue conclusion of the multi-month consolidation pattern in the S&P 500 yesterday! I was really beginning to wonder if it would ever actually happen, but the 1.08% gain in the index was enough to result in a new all-time closing high and take us above the 2119 resistance level that capped prices going all the way back to February. As a result, today's session may just be the most important all year, and I want to see a strong follow-through to prove that this is the move we have been anxiously awaiting." ***KWN Will be releasing interviews all day today with David Stockman and others!
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Did We Just Witness The Greatest Sell Signal In History? CLICK HERE.
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