Mining stocks would have to skyrocket 700% to equal 1980 high as gold, silver and oil heading higher.
Surging Oil Prices
September 9 (King World News) – Peter Schiff: Oil is over $95 per barrel, despite the fact that the Trump administration has been rapidly draining the SPR to keep oil prices suppressed prior to the midterms. Imagine how much higher oil prices will be by the general election in 2028, if the SPR has been empty for over a year.
Gold
Otavio Costa: It is remarkable that gold prices are nearly $3,000 per ounce higher than in 2022, yet drilling activity remains near historic lows.
The same is true across several other metals.
This situation speaks volumes about where we are in the mining cycle:
· Reserves are being depleted.
· Ore grades continue to deteriorate.
· Drilling activity remains historically depressed.
· Exploration budgets are still declining.
If companies are not drilling today, there will be no meaningful supply response for years while structural demand for metals continues to accelerate.
Game on for metals and mining.
Mining Stocks Headed Way, Way Higher
Otavio Costa: A reminder:
The mining industry still represents only about 1% of the entire global equity market.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Mining Stocks Would Have To Rise 700% To Equal 1980 High
I do not know whether that share will rise to 2%, 5%, 10%, or even 15%–20% over the next decade.
But I find it difficult to imagine it falling below 1%.
This, my friends, is asymmetry in its purest form for the decade ahead…
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Gold, Silver & Oil Heading Higher
Peter Boockvar: Ahead of the news today from the US Treasury telling us how much of longer term bonds they are going to buy, whether it’s the $4 billion originally announced or something more, I’ll repeat here what Stan Druckenmiller said in his opinion piece a few weeks ago, “Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the tests.”
As no lunch is free in financial markets as it always has a cost in life too, as the yen continues to rally in anticipation of not just a BoJ rate hike next week but more to follow, we are on watch as to what yield and FX level would trigger a repatriation of Japanese assets currently housed overseas. This is hugely important with Japan the 3rd largest creditor nation in the world with a net positive capital position of $3.5 trillion and also as the largest holder of US Treasuries as well as a large holder of European sovereign bonds.
So, the possible irony of wanting a stronger yen and a BoJ rate hike could end up resulting in some Japanese selling of their US assets.
Copper touched a record high yesterday but is pulling back by 1% today. As for the Bloomberg Industrial Metals index, it closed at a 3 month high yesterday. Included here along with copper is aluminum, nickel, lead and zinc.
The rise in oil prices, along with other commodities, including copper, drove a 3.8% rise in China’s August PPI figure. That is up from 3.5% growth in July and 2 tenths above the estimate. CPI was up by .8% y/o/y and by 1% ex food and energy.
While we are witnessing a continued bear market in the bond markets of the developed world, China’s 10 yr yield continues to plumb new lows and now trading at a yield of 1.68% vs 1.80% one yr ago.
So in terms of competition with the US and others, they have a lower cost of capital as well as lower energy and electricity costs. I’ll say for the umpteenth time, ignore the growing competition, particularly in tech, from China at your investing peril.
Speaking of developed market bond yields, they continue higher, particularly in Europe, with brent crude now trading above $100.
Last Time This Happened The Price Of Gold Doubled
To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss the latest on what to expect from the gold, silver, oil, bond and currency markets CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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