The US dollar tanked, gold soared, but take a look at this…

Gold Miner Bull Market Just Getting Warmed Up
August 20 (King World News) – Graddhy out of Sweden:  Saw many arguing at the lows for this ratio that miners were no good & should be avoided. I was saying back then that it was time to pile into miners. It was.

Been saying next big move starts above gray area. And, it is now back inside gray area, with help from US Treasury yesterday.

React Accordingly
Graddhy out of Sweden:  US Treasury announced yesterday that they are doubling its liquidity-support buybacks. And, they with that also I think revealed their pain threshold for the long-end yield.

Hard assets reacted accordingly.

Have been saying for at least a decade that, when CBs move from hiking+QT to cutting/YCC+QE, plus when the bull markets in general equities+bonds are history, and when increasing inflation has made fixed income even more of a non-alternative, then global capital flows into the commodities space will be more than historical.

Note on the chart below that commodities have already turned very big picture versus the US stock market. This means the generational, life-changing opportunity started 6.5 years ago.

Also, been posting on the pink line breakout and backtest, saying the next leg up is in the making.

And, now we see the narrative developing with e.g. the announcement from the US Treasury yesterday.

=> charts front-run the coming narrative

Was the US Treasury´s move yesterday YCC (yield curve control)..? Well, probably not, I think it can be more viewed as in house debt management. Which means that they have yet to announced actions that mean pure QE. It will come. And it will be afterburner fuel for the commodities bull market…

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Dollar Tanks, Gold Soars
Peter Boockvar:  I expressed my thoughts on what Scott Bessent & Co announced yesterday so don’t have much to add here but of course watching to see what the follow through is both in the US Treasury market and the US dollar. As I see the buyback as nothing more than what FX intervention brings, a temporary respite, I don’t think it works without a coincident fundamental change in the situation, which there currently isn’t. I wonder what bazooka gets pulled out next if I’m right.

The next problem for Treasury would be caused by another rise in inflation expectations in the TIPS market as that would be tough to contain without Fed rate hikes which would now be even more expensive for the Treasury with the increase in T-bill issuance. As for the US dollar today, it’s down again to a 3 month low and gold is at the highest level since early June.

We stay positive and long on gold. The 10 year Treasury yield is basically back to where it was yesterday morning before the news hit at 4.69%.

I’ll say again, what a box we are in.

With Respect To Inflation
I repeat my belief that with respect to inflation, we’re in a commodity bull market that will be followed by ag prices soon. The Bloomberg agriculture index yesterday broke out to the highest level since May 2024. Included in this index is coffee, corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean oil/meal, cotton, and sugar.

We’re long some fertilizer stocks as a play on this. Corn in particular is back above $5 per bushel and wheat is back to $7.

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