This has the potential to create a lot of movement in the gold and silver markets as McClellan warns investors to expect a lot more downside in the US dollar.
Gold Bull Catalyst
August 13 (King World News) – Tom McClellan: The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week on the coordinated US-Japan intervention in the yen. The drop took the DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout.
Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (COT Report data) by actually upping their collective net short position. If you look back at other price tops in this chart, you may notice that when the commercials do this, adding shorts after the downturn, it means that there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: McClellan’s Fantastic Chart And Commentary Strongly Suggests Much More Downside For The US Dollar
US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Continue To Collapse
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank: Takeaways from the EIA’s weekly inventory report:
US crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since January 2023, driven by a 1.1 mb/d surge in imports and exports falling to 3 mb/d, a November low, after the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June boosted global crude availability. In addition, another 6.1 million barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, bringing total SPR releases since the start of the Middle East war to 117 million barrels.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: US Strategic Petroleum Reserves Continue To Collapse – Lowest Level In Nearly 50 Years
US crude production held steady, while refinery demand remained robust. Diesel exports reached a fresh record of 2 mb/d, highlighting continued tightness in the global middle-distillate market, while implied domestic fuel demand held up despite elevated prices…
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ANOTHER GOLD BULL CATALYST: Inflation
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at SaxoBank: Following a brief lull last month, triggered by the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and before renewed Red Sea shipping risks emerged, global container rates have resumed their ascent into August. The Drewry World Container Index rose another 1% this week to USD 4,338 per 40-foot container, leaving rates 85% higher year-on-year and up 96% since the start of the year.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Expect More “Transitory” Inflation As Transport Costs Continue To Soar
The renewed increase is far from uniform, however, with the latest strength heavily concentrated on the Shanghai–New York route. As one of the world’s longest major container lanes, it is particularly exposed to higher fuel costs, longer voyage times and disruption-related surcharges. Rates on the route jumped 10% this week to a two-year high and are now up 164% year-to-date.
By contrast, Europe-bound rates have softened, highlighting how the current surge is increasingly route-specific rather than a broad-based rise in global freight costs. The divergence also underlines the uneven impact of Middle East shipping disruptions, with longer Asia–US East Coast routes carrying a particularly large risk and fuel premium.
Gold & Silver Breakout!
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