Gold futures are surging once again trading at $3,435 after fake downside breakout.
Gold
August 5 (King World News) – Graddhy out of Sweden: Gold never broke below previous daily cycle low (DCL) (green dashed line) for a failed daily cycle. It instead had a false breakout (FBO) since it broke back up inside blue triangle. That looks like a very early DCL day 22.
As it sits right now, that is a bullish chart.
KING WORLD NEWS NOTE: Gold Futures Surging Once Again Trading At $3,435 After Fake Downside Breakout
Investors Believe Fed Rate Cuts Will Be Positive For Stocks
Peter Boockvar: The messaging behind yesterday’s stock market rebound was clear to me. As seen many, many times over the past few decades, the stock market cares more about Fed rate cuts than it does about the reasons for it, rarely ever losing faith in the belief that Fed rate cuts are the cure to all ills.
Mary Daly, the SF president, doesn’t vote but if she could she told us that she would by 2-3 times this year. Her waiting is over she told us.
Rental Costs Continue To Decelerate
We know rents are the key variable to CPI and we’ve heard from some multi family REITS over the past few days. Rent growth is continuing to decelerate but I’ll say again, let’s enjoy the moderation in rental growth because it won’t last next year.
From Camden Property Trust, who mostly has a sunbelt presence and a stock we own run by one of my favorite management teams:
“Rental rates for the second quarter had effective new leases down 2.1% and renewals up 3.7% for a blended rate of .7%. This was in line with our expectations for the quarter and reflected an 80 bps improvement from the negative .1% blended rate we reported in the first quarter of ’25 and a 60 bps improvement from the .1% reported in the second quarter of 2024.”
They expect the back half of 2025 to see blended lease rate growth also just below 1%.
Occupancy remained steady at 95.6% vs 95.4% in Q1 and “Renewal offers for August and September were sent out with an average increase of 3.6%. Turnover rates across our portfolio remain very low with the second quarter of 2025 annualized net turnover of only 39%…with continued low levels of move-outs for home purchases, which were 9.8% this quarter.”
As for why rents will be reaccelerating next year, “And so what’s happening now…is we haven’t had a demand falloff. Our demand in the last two years has been the highest it’s been in 20 years. And so, you have this interesting issue where we have big time supply, and then we have big time demand.”
New Home Construction Plunging
And on the supply side, “So, what’s happening now, and if you look at the starts, starts are down 76% in Charlotte, Denver, Austin, Atlanta, and DC. They’re down 60-76% in Tampa, Orlando, Phoenix and Nashville. They’re down 45% to 65% in Dallas, Houston, West Palm Beach, and Fort Worth. So, when you look at those numbers, clearly the supply is down significantly. It’s going to be down significantly.”
Finally in terms of rent forecasts, “Witten Advisors has kind of an average 4% growth in 2026 for Camden markets, and 5% plus in 2027, and them more beyond. And some of the markets are going 6%, 7% up.”
Equity Residential, who has apartments mostly in coastal regions and where supply has been more muted relative to the sunbelt:
Blended rents grew by 3% in Q2 with new leases down .1% more than offset by renewal rates up by 5.2% y/o/y. For Q3, “Blended rate is expected to be between 2.2% and 2.8%.” Their earnings call is this morning.
Higher End Of The Market Is Firm
From Wayfair and whose stock popped by 13% yesterday:
“The second quarter was a resounding success, defined by accelerating sales and share gain in tandem with expanding profitability.”
“If you just look broadly at the market, what I would say is that the market this year is definitely better than the last three years, where it was down substantially each year. But I think the market is still flat to down low single digits. And I would describe the market not as having strength, but as sort of feeling like it’s bottomed out, like bumping along the bottom.”
“There’s no question the higher end market is stronger than mass. That’s definitely the case…But that’s not really surprising if you just think about the category being discretionary.”
On how their suppliers are managing tariffs, “As we spoke about in the spring, suppliers take different approaches to managing cost increases. While some may pass through price increases, others who want to win share in a demand constrained environment will choose to keep their prices more competitive, and will use all the methods at their disposal to do so.”
Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks!
To listen to James Turk discuss the possibility of the gold price reaching $51,000 as the Fear Index surges to Great Depression highs CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
Gold & Silver!
To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss the wild trading in global markets and what to expect next CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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