As we move toward the end of the year, if things are really recovering, why is this still being done?
December 19 (King World News) – A portion of today’s note from legend Art Cashin: On this day in 1732, a 26-year-old Bostonian transplant, living in Philadelphia published a helpful calendar and counselor, which he called “Poor Richard’s Almanac.” The publication, containing pithy wisdoms like – “Early to bed early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy and wise” – or (Washington, D.C.’s favorite), “A penny saved is a penny earned” – became an instant success in the colonies.
The revenues allowed Benjamin Franklin to retire at age 42. Since golf was not available in the neighborhood, he squandered his remaining years by discovering electricity, inventing the lightning rod, the iron stove, bifocals and the glass harmonica. The next week he developed still-standing theories on meteorology, heat absorption, electricity, and ocean currents.
In his spare time he founded the first insurance company, fire department, public hospital, public library, night patrol and first militia. Seeking a break he became colonial postmaster and civil defense chief for the French and Indian War. Tiring, he was chief delegate at the Albany conference, which organized the colonies and then was appointed chief negotiator with the British crown in London.
When negotiations failed, he returned home to help draft, and then pass the Declaration of Independence. He was then sent to Paris where he won the support of the French which event won the Revolution for the colonies. He returned home and helped draft and again pass the Constitution of the new nation. After that he did little that was important aside from a few inventions and a couple of immortal publications.
To celebrate take a high school graduate out for a flagon of ale and explain the team concept, consensus thinking and why little can be accomplished by one man alone.
The tax bill rally continued Monday and it was anything but a one man show. When the opening bell rang, all eleven of the S&P sectors moved higher, and some smartly higher.
Frustrated With A Fed Dove – My friend, Peter Boockvar, the chief market analyst for the Lindsey Group is a little frustrated with Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed, who appeared on CNBC this morning.
Here is a bit of what Peter wrote this morning:
I’ll say this about 2018, if global equity markets are right about a continuation of the ‘global synchronized recovery’ and the hopes for a robust acceleration in US growth in particular on the heels of the tax bill, there is no way interest rates are going to be sitting at current levels. They are going up and considering how much debt has been accumulated globally post recovery, expect a less quiescent year next year. US fiscal stimulus (for some) came just in time as it will attempt to offset the monetary drag that will pick up steam but who will dominate is up in the air after the victory for the former in 2017.
Don’t even get me started with Fed President Neel Kashkari who still thinks the fed funds rate should be at .625% and is trying to explain his stance. He believes in depression era monetary policy with equity valuations matching the year 2000, the US economy possibly in the 3rd straight quarter with 3% growth with fiscal stimulus ahead, wage pressures building everywhere, commodity prices near 9 month highs, core CPI at 1.7% (well above .625%) and a continued pile up of malinvestment due to a ‘fake’ level of interest rates which upends creative destruction. And, if we go into a recession at some point and all the Fed has is 625 bps of ammunition…Either way, he doesn’t vote next year so his practical viewpoint is irrelevant now.
We may have to get some well-laced eggnog over to Peter to get him back to the spirit of the season.
Overnight And Overseas – In Asia, markets are a bit mixed. Tokyo is fractionally lower, while markets in India, Hong Kong and Shanghai are all moderately higher.
In Europe, London is mildly higher while markets on the continent are modestly lower.
Among other assets, gold is flat and crude is a touch higher on rumors that crude inventories may shrink. The euro is a bit firmer against the dollar and yields are down a bip or two.
Consensus – A House vote on the bill is said to be possible today. If it passes and vote comes before close, it could re-spark the bulls.
Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.
***KWN has just released “the most important in over a decade” top trends for 2018 with Gerald Celente and you can listen to to the remarkable audio interview by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: 2018 SURPRISE: Road To $15,000 – $20,000 Gold CLICK HERE.
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