With the world still awaiting the outcome of the Greek tragedy, today one of the greats in the business sent King World News discussing the Greek tragedy, which is one of the slowest moving train wrecks in financial history.
"Greece has to be the slowest moving train wreck in financial history; but in a way, it's a good thing because if Greece had failed in 2012 we'd be in a much more dire situation." — Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer, BMO Private Bank
June 25 (King World News) By Andrew Adams (Raymond James) – I saw the quote above from BMO's Jack Ablin yesterday after the market closed and decided that I wholeheartedly concur with his statement. For something that many investors believe has the potential to rattle the global financial system, the whole Greece ultimatum saga sure is taking its sweet time to play out.
That delay hopefully has given the world an opportunity to position itself accordingly for all possible contingencies and soften the impact of any adverse outcome, but it is still a very fluid situation. And Ablin is also correct that if any Greek default should happen, it's probably better today instead of three years ago since the global economy at least appears to be on a little firmer ground now.
However, that apparently hasn't reassured many investors since yesterday's decline in stocks was attributed mainly to more Greek worries after it came out that there was still a gap to bridge between the country's proposal and what its creditors demand. That was the headline that greeted me yesterday morning when I walked into the office and I was worried we might see a strong reaction as a result. Futures pointed down from the start and the release of the third estimate of first quarter GDP didn't do much to alter the negative sentiment (GDP was revised to -0.2% from -0.7% as expected).
Fortunately the selling didn't get too out of hand, but the major indexes all put in pretty ominous-looking "candles" on their charts, with the closes coming in near the lows of the day. The Dow Jones Transportation Average had a particularly horrible session, underperforming greatly with a loss of 1.86% and falling back down to the support zone around 8250-8300 for the fourth time since the latter part of May (see chart).
If this level does not hold, there really isn't any obvious additional support until 8000, almost 4% below where we currently stand. But remember that it did take the DJTA about 11 attempts, by my count, to definitively break down through the 8500 support level, so there is at least a recent history of the market respecting these key areas of the charts.
Thus, the rollercoaster year of trading continues, but the recent action is, unfortunately, consistent with what we expected coming into this week. If you'll recall, Jeff Saut wrote in Monday's strategy comment that our "models/indicators do suggest the short-term stock market 'expansion phase' is over and a contraction phrase will begin this week into the July 4th holiday."
This pattern now looks more likely to occur unless a Greek solution really wows the market. Simply kicking the can further down the road may not cut it if we have now entered a short-term period of negative sentiment. With seasonality and the technical picture not helping the situation, it appears it's going to take some sort of unforeseen catalyst to really kickstart this market once again. Now if I could only get my crystal ball to work. ***ALSO JUST RELEASED: 6 Of The Most Jaw-Dropping Charts Of 2015 That Will Blow You Away! CLICK HERE.
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