With the U.S. dollar continuing its surge as gold and silver pull back, legend Jeremy Grantham has issued a dire warning to the world.
A portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: “You’re Gonna Need A Bigger Boat! – As you hopefully remember, that’s the famous line from the movie, “Jaws”, uttered when the authorities realize that the problem (the shark) is much, much larger than they first assumed.
When it comes to immigration, maybe the line should be – you’re gonna need a bigger wall – and we’re not talking Donald Trump here. We’re referring to Britain, the EU and what fear might have helped pushed the Brexit vote through.
Jeremy Grantham touched on the potentially explosive possibilities of immigration pressures in a recent discussion of Brexit. Here’s a bit of what he wrote on the possible pressure coming from Africa and the Middle East:
The truth about immigration to the EU, in my view, is bitter. As covered in earlier quarterlies, I believe Africa and parts of the Near East are beginning to fail as civilized states.
They are failing under the pressure of populations that have multiplied by 5 to 10 times since I was born; climate for growing food that is deteriorating at an accelerating rate; degraded soils; insufficient unpolluted water; bad governance; and lack of infrastructure. Country after country is tilting into rolling failure.
This is producing in these failing states increasing numbers of desperate people, mainly young men, willing to risk money and their lives to attempt an entry into the EU.
For the best example of the non-compute intractability of this problem, consider Nigeria. It had 21 million people when I was born and now has 187 million. In a recent poll, 40% of Nigerians (75 million) said they would like to emigrate, mostly to the U.K. (population 64 million). Difficult. But the official UN estimate for Nigeria’s population in 2100 is over 800 million! (They still have a fertility rate of six children per woman.) Without discussing the likelihood of ever reaching 800 million, I suspect you will understand the problem at hand. Impossible.
I wrote two years ago that this immigration pressure would stress Europe and that the first victim would be Western Europe’s liberal traditions. Well, this is happening in real time as they say, far faster than I expected. It will only get worse as hundreds of thousands of refugees become millions.
The numbers are mind-blowing. The number of Nigerians who want to come to Britain would double the British population. That puts a Brexit vote in a slightly different, but more dramatic, light.
Overnight And Overseas – Asian markets are generally softer as traders nail down profits on continuing geo- political uncertainties. Hong Kong and India managed small upticks nevertheless.
In Europe, stocks returned to the buy side with small rallies in Paris, Frankfurt and London.
In other assets, gold is down a touch as is the euro. Crude looks flat and treasury yields are up by a hair.
Consensus – Stocks look to open firmer as speculation swirls about what the ECB may do tomorrow. The political cauldron is still bubbling in Turkey, so that will be watched closely. The lift to higher highs continues to squeeze shorts.
Stick with the drill – stay way, alert and very, very nimble.
***KWN has just released the incredible audio interview with London metals trader Andrew Maguire and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***Also Just Released: David Stockman On The Coming Global Collapse Click Here.
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