Markets continue violent back and forth trading and things could get dicey quickly, but silver is poised to do something big on the upside.
Things Could Get Dicey Quickly
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
April 12 (King World News) – Despite all the geopolitical headlines (and tweets) across a myriad of fronts, the stock market put on a brave face today as it reduced the overnight lows of about a percent in the futures to almost nothing by midmorning. They then slid back to close with the modest losses you see in the box scores (with the Nasdaq extra firm). I think the bulls feel that the market must rally during earnings season and are positioning themselves that way. Thus, if earnings can’t take the market higher, things could get dicey quickly....
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Away from stocks, green paper was slightly weaker, oil gained 2%, fixed income was higher, and the metals gained almost 2% right out of the blocks before they saw selling, which cut the gains to 0.5% for silver and 1% for gold. And for once the miners were quite a bit stronger than the metals themselves (for the most part).
Good News Mattering Is Good News
For those who have been licking their wounds over the thumping Pretium has taken recently, today’s update helped precipitate a 20% gain in the stock price. It would appear that the company is making progress toward its production grade and recovery goals, but it must be kept in mind that this is a very complicated ore body and it is going to take several quarters before anyone knows what is there (as I have pointed out on several occasions, it seems like only the bears “know” with 100% certainty the exact geology of the ore body).
The indiscriminate selling that has taken place across the mining sector is now perhaps finally behind us, as we are really on the verge of a huge breakout in the metals complex. Of course, it is difficult to know if some part of today’s strength in gold was related to imminent action in Syria, which would likely be sold once it occurred, but that is also the perfect recipe to keep people on the sidelines and make sure that the gold market gets through a zone where everyone wants to buy without everyone buying it (if you get my meaning).
Don’t Jinx It!
In any case, even if the blastoff in the metals complex is not today or tomorrow, it is certainly getting closer, despite any potential imminent setback because I reiterated my bullish views today(!).
Included below is one question and answer from the Q&A’s with Bill Fleckenstein.
Silver Poised To Do Something Big
Question: Hi Bill, question on silver. There has been a lot made of the recent COT positioning in silver. It appears the Commercials are long for the first time in at least15 years and open interest is at an all-time high but silver volatility is near its historic low. Do you or your silver trading friend find that today’s silver set-up to be unsustainable? While I am not looking for a time frame I always think of the “jumpy metal” as something that is prone to bouts of huge vol after quiet periods. Should be vol to the upside. Thanks
Answer from Fleck: “Yes, and I feel like silver is poised to do something big on the upside one of these days.”
ALSO RELEASED: URGENT ALERT: Gerald Celente Just Issued This Dire Warning CLICK HERE TO READ.
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