It appears that the war trade is back on as oil is surging once again along with food and other inflationary indicators.
The War Trade Is Back On
March 26 (King World News) – Peter Boockvar: War trade back on.
Food Prices Surging
We’re of course watching energy prices but still keep your eye on food prices as the CRB Food Stuff index closed yesterday up a touch but to the highest level since last November. As seen in the chart, there is a lot of upside from here, unfortunately. We remain long some fertilizer stocks. From the perspective of the farmer, with higher fertilizer and fuel costs, they really need higher crop prices as the planting season gets underway.
In the first release since the war and oil price spike, the Dallas Fed released its Q1 Energy Survey and not surprisingly the index went from -6.2 in Q4 to 21 and the outlook rose from -15.2 to +32.2. However, “Oil and gas production was little changed in the first quarter, according to executives at exploration and production firms. The oil production index increased slightly from -3.4 to 0. Similarly, the natural gas production index edged higher from 0 to 2.3.” https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601
Oil & Gas Executives Weigh In
While we’re all guessing as to when/how this war ends and where oil prices go from here, this is what oil/gas company executives think:
Natural Gas
And for natural gas prices as US LNG exports become ever more needed around the world:
Shipping Costs Rise
Container shipping prices continue to rise but as the Houthi’s haven’t yet disrupted the Red Sea, they still remain relatively muted. The Shanghai to LA trip rose by $95 to $2,686 to the highest since mid January. The route to NY rose by a similar amount to $3,393 and to Rotterdam, Netherlands from Shanghai too to $2,552.
Bulls & Bears
Stock market bearishness continues to rise. In the Investors Intelligence index, Bulls are down to just 39.3 from 42.6 in the month before and it was only just recently it seems that it got above 60 before the kinetic war. That’s the lowest since May 2025 right after the tariff war began again. Bears rose .9 pts to 25. Today’s AAII gauge was little changed. Bulls rose 1.7 pts to 32.1 after falling by 7 straight weeks. Bears fell by 2.2 pts to 49.8 after jumping by 16.5 pts in the prior two weeks. The CNN Fear/Greed index is at just 18, within the ‘extreme fear’ quadrant.
Bottom line, the sentiment is there for a relief rally. We just need news of the relief.
Here’s What I’m Doing With My Own Money Right Now
To listen to Tavi Costa discuss where we go from here as well as what he is doing with his own money right now by CLICKING HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
Gold & Silver Takedown!
To listen to Alasdair Macleod discuss the massive takedown in the gold and silver markets this week as well as what to expect next CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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