On the heels of the recent volatility in gold and silver, Michael Oliver, the man who is well known for his deadly accurate forecasts on stocks, bonds, and major markets, shared with King World News the key levels to watch for major gold and silver upside breakouts.
September 27 (King World News) – Michael Oliver, Founder of MSA Research: Gold’s monthly momentum has been basically capped around the 3-mo. avg./zero line since the June close. We plot a red line across all the action since.
There have been over three months of downside pressure and yet the beachball won’t seem to sink much lower below the waves.
In October if you see action take out this month’s oscillator high ($1821.50 will cause momentum to take out the September oscillator high and all action of the past three months), then it’s best to assume this situation is resurfacing.
Breakout Number Is $1,829
Next quarter (meaning this Friday’s close onward) if quarterly momentum closes any week over the massively clear and aged structure, that will signal that quarterly momentum has completed its downside process and basing action—with an upside breakout. Right now that estimated breakout number is $1829. We’ll define this trigger level with specificity once this quarter closes on Thursday and we can calculate the new 3- qtr. moving avg./zero line. A few dollars here or there, that price level is very close to what will punch monthly momentum (3-mo. avg. oscillator), above the past three-plus months of basing action…
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Interestingly, the coincidence of a positive level for monthly and quarterly momentum for gold is very close. Much reverse to the situation in stock indices where negative trigger levels below are very close.
Silver’s monthly momentum has been capped at and below the zero line/3-mo. avg. for three and a half months now. We define that as a perfect suppressed beachball pattern (a momentum pattern).
The issue is to get a week to close above the surface. And right now (estimating the new 3- mo. avg.) that will be accomplished if Friday or any week in October we see a weekly close above $24.28.
Quarterly momentum has constructed a multi-point downtrend (plotted through rally high weekly closing readings and one intraweek high reading). And it’s an aged downtrend to boot.
Silver Needs To Break Above $24.50
Numbers are estimated (they’ll get specific when this quarter closes on Thursday), but a weekly close next quarter at $24.46 will close over that most recent rally high on momentum that hit the line (final arrow), and it will also then be credibly out above the fourteen-month-old downtrend structure.
And obviously silver and gold’s momentum trends have been opposite that of the stock market.
Boockvar Weighs In On Silver
Peter Boockvar: As a follow up last week to my reiteration of a bullish position in gold and silver, for the week ended last Tuesday the CFTC said the net speculative long position in silver as fallen to the lowest level since June 2019 which should be viewed from a contrarian perspective.
SILVER CONTRARIAN ALERT:
Net Speculative Silver Long Positions
Lowest Since June 2019
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