Here is a look at gold’s low and what is going parabolic.
Gold
September 28 (King World News) – Graddhy out of Sweden: Have been saying for 5 weeks or so that Aug 9th looks pretty good as a major (weekly cycle) low so far. Today’s new low on day 35 means it is late in daily cycle for a daily cycle low, and could put in that low at any time now.
Late In Cycle, Daily Low For Gold Close At Hand
Inflation
Peter Boockvar: Home buyers in July paid 20% more for homes vs July 2020 according to S&P CoreLogic’s home price index. This is a rate of gain never before seen. Leading the way, home prices in Phoenix spiked 32% in July and by 28% in San Diego. On the slower end, they rose ‘just’ 13% in Chicago and by 14.5% in Minneapolis.
Home Buyers Paid 20% More In This Year
Yes, we can blame the supply side for not delivering enough homes but we can also blame the Federal Reserve for their aggressive monetary policy that pushed the demand side via historically low mortgage rates. We now know the perils of pushing things too hot as faster home price gains more than offset the benefit of lower monthly payments.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 109.3 in September from 115.2 in August with both main components down m/o/m. This compares with a print of 132.6 in February 2020.
One yr inflation expectations moderated by 2 tenths to 6.5% off a 10 yr high but that’s just back to the 6 month average and which is vs the 5 yr average of 5.1%.
One Year Inflation Expectations Near 10 Year High
With respect to the answers to the jobs market questions, those that said jobs were Plentiful rose to the highest level since 2000 but there was also a rise in those that said jobs were Hard to Get. I can only square that circle as a skills mismatch issue. On the expectations for jobs, employment and income both moderated.
As seen in the UoM data for September, there were further declines in spending intentions for auto’s, homes and major appliances…
Billionaire Eric Sprott bought a 20% stake in a mining company
to find out which one click here or on the image below
The Conference Board is blaming Delta as dampening optimism but I argue that is just not the case as just watch any weekend sporting event with packed stadiums. I think it’s rising inflation as seen with the drop in spending intentions.
Following yesterday’s miss on Dallas manufacturing, today saw the Richmond manufacturing index fall to -3 from +9 vs the estimate of +10.
Prices paid have gone parabolic as a print of 14 compares with the historical average of just 2.2.
Prices Paid Have Gone Parabolic!
Prices received fell a hair from its record high. Wages fell off its record high but employment rose after the August drop.
Wages Remain Close To Record High
Vendor lead times fell slightly but remains high. Capital spending plans were mixed and inventories remain deeply negative.
With regards to expectations, inventory levels went further negative, price expectations continued higher as did for wages and employment.
Prices Received Remain At Record High Levels
Capital spending intentions were mixed.
Bottom line is that we know full well what the bottom line is at this point with all the challenges that manufacturers are facing in not just making a product but getting it from point A to point B.
Natural Gas Prices Skyrocketing
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: Michael Oliver – Key Levels To Watch For Major Gold & Silver Upside Breakouts CLICK HERE.
***ALSO JUST RELEASED: INFLATION IS THE NEW NORMAL: We Are Now Seeing A Critical Shift In Global Markets CLICK HERE
***To listen to Stephen Leeb discuss what to expect next in the gold and silver markets as well as a global game-changer CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
***To listen to this timely audio interview about what is going to have a huge impact on the gold and silver markets going forward CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.
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